2023-24 NBA MVP Odds: Best bets, value picks, sleepers and longshots to win Michael Jordan Trophy

Most NBA players today will tell you that the core goal of their career is to win the next championship. Even the guys who’ve won it all and hoisted the Larry O’Brien Trophy under a shower of confetti want to experience those heights again. However, if you gave these top stars some truth serum and asked them what drives them, many would admit that winning an MVP is also high on their career bucket list. Today, we’ll take a look at the 2023-24 NBA MVP odds and announce who we think are the top bets, sleepers, and longshots to lift the next Michael Jordan Trophy.

Basketball fans remember exactly how last year’s MVP race went. Joel Embiid went on a scoring spree at the end of the season, eventually winning the league’s scoring title, and played great defense throughout the season. Embiid’s stellar performance, combined with two-time MVP Nikola Jokic’s absence at home during the regular season, leaves the 76ers superstar to replace Clowney (although Jokic will likely use the three-time MVP instead) In exchange for the 2022-23 NBA championship).

This year, many believe Clowney has a good chance of returning to the top spot. Others like the possibility of former MVPs LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo returning to the MVP spotlight. With many big-name stars switching positions in the offseason, future possibilities suggest there may be plenty of room for this award for the foreseeable future.

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That’s where we come in, as we use our research and analysis to predict what’s coming. We’ll start by taking a look at the 2023-24 NBA MVP odds table before breaking down who we think is the best pick, top dive, and highest value long shot to be recognized as the league’s most outstanding player this season.

2023-24 NBA MVP Odds

Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook

player	Odds
Nikola Jokic, Nuggets	+400
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks	+500
Luka Doncic, Mavericks	+550
Jayson Tatum, Celtics	+800
Joel Embiid, 76ers	+850
Kevin Durant, Suns	+1100
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder	+1500
Damian Lillard, Bucks	+1500
Devin Booker, Suns	+1500
Stephen Curry, Warriors	+1500
LeBron James, Lakers	+2500
Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves	+2500
Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers	+2800
Trae Young, Hawks	+3000
De’Aaron Fox, Kings	+3500
Zion Williamson, Pelicans	+4000
Jamal Murray, Nuggets	+4000
Anthony Davis, Lakers	+4000
Domantas Sabonis, Kings	+4000
Paul George, Clippers	+5000
Jalen Brunson, Knicks	+5000
Julius Randle, Knicks	+5000
Pascal Siakam, Raptors	+6000
James Harden, 76ers	+6000
Jimmy Butler, Heat	+6000
Kyrie Irving, Mavericks	+6000
LaMelo Ball, Hornets	+6000
Karl Anthony Towns	+6000
Brandon Ingram, Pelicans	+6000
Kawhi Leonard, Clippers	+6000
DeMar DeRozan, Bulls	+7500
Mikal Bridges, Nets	+7500
Bradley Beal, Suns	+7500
Tyrese Haliburton, Pacers	+7500
Jordan Poole, Wizards	+7500
Jaylen Brown, Celtics	+7500
Darius Garland, Cavaliers	+10000
Lauri Markkanen, jazz	+10000
Desmond Bane, Grizzlies	+10000
Zach LaVine, Bulls	+10000

NBA MVP 2023-24: Top picks

Top pick: Jayson Tatum, Celtics (+800)

Tatum is undoubtedly the best player in the best six-man rotation in basketball. Brad Stevens’ offseason masterclass has prepared Boston for a serious run at the No. 18 banner, but the keys to the “Champion or Bust” truck remain in JT’s hands. We’ve already seen the new Celtics’ fluidity in the preseason, but even when Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis share the court with Tatum and Jaylen Brown , everyone let JT do his thing.

The 2022-23 All-NBA selection has plenty of reasons to be optimistic about his MVP chances. First, he plays a ton of games every season and never cares about off days or load management. He also has the fact that he never won the award, as recent members of the media have proven that voter fatigue is indeed real. Among the top six players on the MVP odds list, only Tatum and Luka Doncic have zero MVP trophies. Considering Dallas failed to make the playoffs and Boston won the East, JT gets my stamp of approval.

He’s more than just a scorer and a winner. Tatum is also an underrated defender, ball handler, rebounder and passer who is emerging as a quiet leader. He has style and substance, and now he has one of the three best teams in the NBA. If Tatum averages 30/8/5, shoots well and defends well, and leads Boston to a No. 1 seed, Joel Embiid could be eliminated by the leader of his least favorite team.

Other top options: Nikola Jokic, Nuggets (+400); Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks (+500)

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Top Value: Devin Booker, Suns (+1,500)

Even after Kevin Durant landed in Phoenix, Booker remained “the guy.” From the beginning, Durant viewed Booker as the Suns’ go-to scorer and playmaker. Chris Paul later became a member of the Warriors through Washington and even gave way to Booker at point guard in the playoffs. Now that Booker has a championship-caliber roster surrounding him, his MVP value is incredible.

When CP3 left, he lost the 9.5 assists he had averaged in three years as Suns point guard. Because Booker is the best ball handler, passer and playmaker in the Phoenix Suns core rotation – and he has Durant, Bradley Beal, Grayson Allen and Yuta Watanabe as his Catch-and-shoot options — We have to imagine Booker becoming the primary benefactor of that boatload of discarded dimes. When Paul was active, he averaged 5.5 points per game and before CP3 landed in Phoenix, he averaged 7 points per game. With an embarrassment of riches surrounding him now, it’s easy to imagine him dropping eight cents a game.

Averaging 28 points per game almost feels like free squares in bingo at this point, and Booker’s improved defense in the 2023 NBA playoffs gives us hope if he really wants to go all-in to get the best in the Western Conference record and his first season MVP trophy, he can achieve it. Our bet on Book relative to Shai Gilgeous Alexander’s valuation is +1500, and since Book has been around longer, the Suns should win 10-15 games more than the Thunder.

Other strong value bets: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder (+1500)

Top Sleeper: Anthony Davis, Lakers (+4000)

What’s not to love about these odds? AD is only 30 years old and still in his prime, so we expect big things from Brow this season. LeBron had to step up during Davis’ absence from December to January last season, and the modern GOAT’s usage rate soared to levels we haven’t seen since the 2009-10 season. If he doesn’t have to work as hard or score as high, King James won’t. He’s excluded from the NBA’s player participation policy due to his age and service time, so AD will likely be a regular during the regular season (barring injury, of course).

For the first time since winning the Los Angeles bubble, AD and LeBron have a stable team that should have a much better regular season record than last year. Between Rob Pelinka’s stellar trade-deadline trade and Austin Reeves’ breakout, the Lakers are 18-8 after the deadline and well on their way to the Western Conference Finals. Sure, they swept the Denver Nuggets, but that had a lot to do with James clearly not being 100% due to injuries and the aforementioned fatigue from high usage.

When Davis is healthy, no one in the league is more dominant from start to finish. He’s an incredibly skilled defender and shot-blocker, he grabs everything that comes his way, he can shoot from all three levels, and he gets to the free throw line a lot. He runs the floor well, passes the ball efficiently and spends a fraction of the time complaining to referees each year as his fellow superstars. Oddsmakers may regret offering so much to one of the best players in the game next June.

Best Long Shot: Tyrese Haliburton, Pacers (+7500)

It’s a long shot, as the Pacers’ chances are slim, but why not put Harry at No. 5? He has emerged as one of the best passers and shooters in the NBA last season, and Indiana seems to be getting better and more confident every year.

Haliburton has a lot to do to become a true contender, but we could have said the same thing about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander last year. Right now, SGA’s odds are +1500. There’s nothing not to like about Harry – he’s smart, talented, and downright top-notch. If we lose $5, we say nothing. If we win $375, we will win four games in a row.