Cailee Spaeny in the movie Priscilla
Courtesy of A24
PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, compiled Hollywood ReporterThe magazine’s executive editor of awards coverage, Scott Feinberg, reflects on his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. note his personal preferences. He arrives at these predictions through consultations with voters and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, the results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars, and the history of the Oscars itself. There will be regular updates reflecting new developments.
* * *
Best picture
Leaders
American fiction (Amazon/MGM)
Oppenheimer (Universal)
Barbie (Warner Bros.)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple/Paramount)
Poor things (Spotlight)
Past Lives (A24)
Owner (Netflix)
Leftovers (Focus)
Area of interest (A24)
We are all strangers (Spotlight)
Main threats
Nyad (Netflix)
Anatomy of a fall (Neon)
Source (Neon)
Rustin (Netflix)
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)
Air (Amazon/MGM)
May December (Netflix)
Possibilities
Saltburn (Amazon/MGM)
Priscilla (A24)
Ferrari (Neon)
A taste of things (IFC)
Dream scenario (A24)
Dumb Money (Sony)
American Symphony (Netflix)
Boy and heron (GKIDS)
I can’t call yet
Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
Iron claw (A24)
Napoleon (Apple/Sony)
Best Director
Leaders
Greta Gerwig (ur.Barbie) – podcast
Christopher Nolan (ur.Oppenheimer)
Martin Scorsese (eng.Killers of the Flower Moon)
Jonathan GlaserArea of interest)
Cord JeffersonAmerican fiction)
Main threats
Yorgos LanthimosPoor things)
Bradley Cooper (Owner)
Alexander Payne (English)Leftovers)
Celine Song ((Past Lives)
Andrew Hay (English)We are all strangers)
Ava DuVernay (ur.Source)
Justine TrietAnatomy of a fall)
Possibilities
Jimmy Chin and Chai Vasarhelyi (Nyad)
Todd Haynes (ur.May December) – podcast
Michael Mann ((Ferrari)
Emerald FennellSaltburn)
Sofia Coppola (English)Priscilla)
Ben Affleck (Air) – podcast
Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers and Justin K. Thompson (Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse)
I can’t call yet
Blitz Bazavule (Color Purple)
Sean Durkin (ur.Iron claw)
Ridley Scott (English)Napoleon)
Best Actor
Leaders
Cillian Murphy (ur.Oppenheimer)
Paul Giamatti (English)Leftovers)
Bradley Cooper (Owner)
Colman DomingoRustin)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Main threats
Jeffrey WrightAmerican fiction)
Andrew Scott (We are all strangers)
Nicolas Cage (Dream scenario) – podcast
Barry Keoghan (ur.Saltburn)
Christian Friedel (English)Area of interest)
Adam DriverFerrari)
Matt Damon (Air)
Possibilities
Alden Ehrenreich (ur.Fair)
Theo Yu (Past Lives)
Koji Yakusho (English)Ideal days)
Benoit MagimelA taste of things)
Gael Garcia BernalCassander)
Paul DanoDumb Money)
Taron Egerton (ur.Tetris) – podcast
I can’t call yet
Zac Efron (Iron claw)
Joaquin Phoenix (ur.Napoleon)
Best Actress
Leaders
Annette Bening (ur.Nyad)
Emma Stone (Poor things) – podcast
Margot Robbie (ur.Barbie) – podcast
Lily Gladstone (ur.Killers of the Flower Moon)
Carey Mulligan (ur.Owner) – podcast
Main threats
Natalie Portman (May December) – podcast
Sandra Hüller (ur.Anatomy of a fall)
Greta Lee (English)Past Lives)
Cailee Spaeny (ur.Priscilla)
Aunjanue Ellis-TaylorSource) – podcast
Possibilities
Helen Mirren (ur.Golda) – podcast
Eve HewsonFlora and son)
Leonie BenesTeacher’s lounge)
Phoebe Dynevor (ur.Fair)
Jodie Comer (ur.Cyclists) – podcast
I can’t call yet
Fantasy Barrino (Color Purple)
Best Supporting Actor
Leaders
Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Mark Ruffalo (ur.Poor things)
Sterling K. Brown (American fiction) – podcast
Charles Melton (ur.May December)
Main threats
Robert De Niro (ur.Killers of the Flower Moon) – podcast
Jesse Plemons (ur.Killers of the Flower Moon) – podcast
Willem Dafoe (ur.Poor things) – podcast
John MagaroPast Lives)
Matt Damon (Oppenheimer)
Chris Messina (ur.Air)
Possibilities
Jacob Elordi (ur.Priscilla)
Glenn Howerton (ur.Blackberry)
Jon BernthalSource)
Dominic SessaLeftovers)
Eddie Marsan (ur.Fair)
I can’t call yet
Colman DomingoColor Purple)
Corey Hawkins (ur.Color Purple) – podcast
Tahar Rahim (English)Napoleon)
Jeremy Allen WhiteIron claw)
Best Supporting Actress
Leaders
Da’Vine Joy RandolphLeftovers)
Jodie Foster (ur.Nyad) – podcast
Julianne Moore (English)May December)
Sandra Hüller (ur.Area of interest)
Rosamund Pike (ur.Saltburn) – podcast
Main threats
Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) – podcast
Leslie Uggams (ur.American fiction)
Erica Alexander (American fiction)
Juliette Binoche (ur.A taste of things)
Emily Blunt (English)Oppenheimer)
Viola Davis (ur.Air)
Possibilities
Claire Foy (English)We are all strangers) – podcast
Issa Rae ((American fiction) – podcast
Tracee Ellis Ross (ur.American fiction) – podcast
America Ferrera (Barbie)
Patricia Clarkson (ur.Monica) – podcast
Niecy Nash-BettsSource)
Julianne Nicholson (ur.Dream scenario)
I can’t call yet
Halle Bailey (English)Color Purple)
Daniel Brooks (ur.Color Purple)
HER (Color Purple) – podcast
Taraji P. Henson (Color Purple) – podcast
Lily James ((Iron claw) – podcast
Vanessa Kirby (ur.Napoleon)
Maura Tierney (ur.Iron claw)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Leaders
American fiction (Cord Jefferson)
Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese)
Poor things (Tony McNamara)
Area of interest (Jonathan Glaser)
Main threats
We are all strangers (Andrew Hay)
Priscilla (Sofia Coppola)
Source (Ava DuVernay)
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Dave Callaham, Phil Lord and Chris Miller)
Possibilities
Nyad (Julia Cox)
Dumb Money (Rebecca Angelo and Lauren Shuker Blum)
Ferrari (Michael Mann, Troy Kennedy Martin and Brock Yates)
Cyclists (Jeff Nichols)
Are you there, God? It’s me, Margaret (Kelly Fremon Craig)
I can’t call yet
Color Purple (Marcus Gardley)
Best Original Screenplay
Leaders
Barbie (Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig) – podcast (Gerwig)
Past Lives (Celine Song)
Leftovers (David Hemingson)
Anatomy of a fall (Arthur Harari and Justine Triet)
Teacher’s lounge (Ilker Çatak and Johannes Dunker)
Main threats
Saltburn (Emerald Fennell)
Owner (Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer)
Fair (Chloe Domont)
Air (Alex Convery)
Dream scenario (Christoffer Borgley)
Possibilities
May December (Sam Birch and Alex Mechanic)
Rustin (Dustin Lance Black and Julian Brees)
Cassander (David Teague and Roger Ross Williams) – podcast (Williams)
Flora and son (John Carney)
I can’t call yet
Iron claw (Sean Durkin)
Napoleon (David Scarpa)
Best International Feature Film
Leaders
Area of interest (Great Britain)
A taste of things (France)
Teacher’s lounge (Germany)
Ideal days (Japan)
20 days in Mariupol (Ukraine)
I can’t call yet
I’m the captain (Italy)
Godland (Iceland)
Shaida (Australia)
Snow Society (Spain)
Fallen leaves (Finland)
Lessons of the Good (Bulgaria)
Four daughters (Tunisia)
About dry herbs (Türkiye)
Thunder (Switzerland)
Mother of all lies (Morocco)
Best Documentary
Leaders
American Symphony (Netflix)
Kokomo City (Magnolia)
Beyond Utopia (Roadside)
20 days in Mariupol (PBS)
The deepest breath (Netflix)
Main threats
Everlasting memory (MTV)
Pigeon Tunnel (Apple)
Mission (Nat Geo)
Stamped from the start (Netflix) – podcast (Roger Ross Williams)
Still (Apple) – podcast (Davis Guggenheim)
Silver Dollar Road (Amazon)
The disappearance of Shere Hite (IFC)
Possibilities
Bobi Wine: The People’s President (Nat Geo)
Anselm (Sideshow/Janus)
All (Focus)
King Coal (still seeking US distribution)
League (Magnolia)
Joan Baez: I am the noise (Magnolia)
Kill the tiger (still seeking US distribution)
I can’t call yet
32 sounds (Abramorama)
Black ice (Lionsgate)
Compassionate Spy (Magnolia)
Cup 71 (still seeking US distribution)
Disobedient (still seeking US distribution)
Four daughters (Kino Lorber)
A Trip to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Story (GBO)
Hollywoodgate (still seeking US distribution)
Judy Blume forever (Amazon)
Lakota Nation Vs. United States (IFC)
Little Richard: I am everything (Magnolia)
Menu-Plaisirs Les Troisgros (Zipporah)
Mother of all lies (still seeking US distribution)
Orlando, My political biography (Sideshow/Janus)
Periodical (MSNBK)
unmerciful (Abramorama)
What the hell happened to the blood, sweat and tears? (Abramorama)
While we were watching (PBS)
your fat friend (still looking for distribution)
Best Animated Film
Leaders
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)
Elemental (Pixar) – podcast (Pete Docter)
Boy and heron (GKIDS)
They shot the pianist (Sony Classics)
Nimona (Netflix)
Main threats
Movie “Super Mario Brothers” (Lighting)
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Primary importance)
I can’t call yet
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix)
Ernest and Celestine: Journey to Gibbertia (GKIDS)
First slam dunk (GKIDS)
Leo (Netflix)
Migration (Lighting)
RobotDreams (Neon)
Stopmotion (IFC)
Suzume (Toho)
Trolls unite (DreamWorks)
Wish (Disney)