Despite the rebound of the last two sessions in bitcoin, experts warn that the queen of cryptocurrencies is not completely out of danger, since it has tested an important level of support and has run into formidable resistance. . The drilling of $ 40,000 on September 21 opens the doors to a major correction that could be triggered before October and that gives rise to all kinds of bearish predictions.
If a few days ago we collected in ‘Bolsamanía’ the Forecasts from the most bullish experts and investors, in an unflattering moment for the creation of Satoshi Nakamoto, the most pessimistic predictions cannot be ignored prices below $ 20,000 that the crypto asset surpassed last year. And although the market consensus puts it around 65,000 – 70,000 by the end of the year, to keep rising to $ 100,000, managers like Aberdeen Standard are not ashamed to stress that there is not a single real reason to support these prices and its intrinsic value is non-existent.
“Bitcoin is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to value using any standard valuation technique.” If it does not replace conventional currencies as a viable medium of exchange (the current consensus view) “it can be said that its fundamental value should be close to zero”, They commented in a recent analysis note.
They are not the only ones who believe that the current price does not hold. And not a few voices are betting that the falls continue to 30,000 dollars, at least, for, in the long term, revisit the $ 20,000 or $ 18,000According to Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist at equity technical guidance platform InTheMoneyStocks.com, collects ‘Kitco News’. Also recently, Vijay Ayyar, head of business development at cryptocurrency exchange Luno, noted that bitcoin could fall further. In comments to ‘Bloomberg’, the former Google executive said it could fall as high as $ 20,000.
Also, during the summer, when the price hit intraday lows below $ 30,000 on July 20 and 21, predictions emerged that projected a bitcoin at $ 13,000.
That the cryptoactive loses two thirds of its current value is a fact that freezes the blood, but it would not be the first time that a movement of these characteristics has been experienced in the 13 years of life of bitcoin. However, a rectification of another 10% would not be strange for experts like Craig Erlam, an analyst at Oanda, since the digital currency “It does not have very good prospects in the short term” as long as it remains below $ 44,000. “A failure on the rises could be another bearish sign and fuel the pressure of the September 21 low.” “A move below $ 40,000 would cause attention to shift back to the $ 36,000 and even $ 30,000”, Concludes the expert.
If this scenario is fulfilled before the 30th, the losses would be 36% from the opening price of the month and bitcoin would comply with a maximum of this market that ensures that the ninth month of the year tends to choke the number one ‘crypto’. In fact, the ‘bears’ have closed 66% of all September monthly candles since bitcoin’s birth in red. On the contrary, the ‘bulls’ have only taken the cat to the water three out of twelve times.
Also, in any bullish period, September also ended with losses for the most valued of the crypto currencies And it has never seen a price increase of more than 6%, which increases the chances that 2021 will be no different than 2017 or 2020, when it was left around 7.5%.
But if you have to look back to the past, the ‘rally’ will come in October, as records show that bulls are dominating the market. Since 2013, only two years have left negative returns in the tenth month, while in the rest, it has never risen less than 10%, with hikes as memorable as 47.81% in 2017 or nearly 28% in 2020, according to Bybt data.