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At a delicate moment, the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, has dealt a severe blow in the local elections scheduled for the end of next month, especially in terms of competition between him and the forces of the Shiite coordination regulatory framework in the central governorates and southern ones with a Shiite majority.

Al-Sadr decided his position regarding the holding of the elections, at a time when the fever of electoral competition between the various political forces began to grow. In a statement to his supporters he said: “Your involvement with the corrupt makes me very sad… Your boycott of the elections is something that makes me happy and infuriates the enemy… It reduces the legitimacy of elections internationally “. and internally and reduces the domination of corrupt and subjugated people over our beloved Iraq (…).”

Al-Sadr emphasized “unity of ranks, obedience and loyalty,” which he considered the most important “rule” for his supporters. Boasting about this, he recommended “a commitment to reform even if Muqtada al-Sadr dies.” He continued: “So the global and regional situation is affecting the situation in Iraq… and with that we must be constantly vigilant and prepared, as the enemy is lurking in our Iraq and our holy sites, so please be careful.”

This is the second major decision taken by Al-Sadr following his decision in June 2022 to withdraw from Parliament after his list came first and announced his withdrawal from the political process and not to participate in any future elections, so not to participate with “corrupt politicians”, as he defined them. While the replacements of Al-Sadr’s resigned deputies were distributed among the various forces of the coordination framework, which increased their percentage in Parliament and made them the largest parliamentary bloc that appointed the current Prime Minister, Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani, to form the government, the specter of Al-Sadr’s return has remained an obsession that worries his opponents in the Shiite community.

Meanwhile, the general officer of the “Peace Brigades”, Tahseen Al-Hamidawi, issued a warning to the brigade formations regarding the provincial council elections on Monday. He said in a blog: “As it has been, and will remain, the opinion of leader Muqtada al-Sadr is the chapter of discourse in our jihadist and social path, and after (Al-Sadr’s) response regarding the council elections provincial, here I address my word to those who belong to the formations of the Mujahid Peace Brigades and have committed themselves to these elections, to withdraw their candidacy within 15 days, otherwise we will have another response”.

The rule of law is diminishing

The Rule of Law coalition, led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, downplayed the importance of Al-Sadr’s call, in the first response by a Shiite to Al-Sadr’s call to boycott the elections.

Rule of Law leader Saad Al-Muttalabi said: “Part of the Shiite component will boycott the provincial council elections, while the rest of the Shiite component will participate, and the boycott of any component does not affect the legitimacy of the elections. . elections internationally or domestically, and if the entire Shiite component boycotted, there would be an impact.” The same goes for the Sunni and Kurdish components.”

Al-Muttalabi explained that “the Shiite component will participate in the electoral process as candidates and voters, so there is nothing that can make the elections lose legitimacy.” He added: “The Iraqi constitution states that there is no cap on the percentage of participants in elections to determine whether or not they are legitimate. Therefore, any percentage, even if very small, will be considered a constitutional and legitimate election.”

Shiite boycott

Dr. Ihsan Al-Shammari, head of the Center for Political Thought in Iraq, told Asharq Al-Awsat: “The call of the leader of the Sadrist movement to boycott the elections is a continuation of the general path of boycotting the entire process political, and therefore the issue is not limited only to the withdrawal from Parliament, but at all levels.” And the regions, which indicates that he will not join those he defines as corrupt and murderers in any electoral mechanism or otherwise.”

According to Al-Shammari, “The second way in this appeal is to boycott these elections by a Shiite majority, since the Sadrist movement was the Shiite leader in the election results, and therefore its public did not participate, which means a large Shia public. I boycotted it.”

Regarding the third track, Al-Shammari says: “This issue will double the percentage of boycotts, especially since there are boycott calls from different political forces who also called for a boycott of the elections, but in any case were waiting for the last word of the leader of the Sadrist movement on this matter.” “This will affect the entire political process and confuse it completely.”

For his part, Dr. Ghaleb Al-Daami, researcher and academician of Asharq Al-Awsat, believes that “Al-Sadr’s boycott call represents the first statement after the formation of this government with such clarity and accuracy, as he states : We will not participate in a government and elections that clearly legitimize corruption, and he thanks his fans. “They must obey him, so as not to be part of a corrupt environment,” adding: “That means he opposes the government, he opposes the elections and opposes any resulting action.”

Al-Daami explained: “Al-Sadr, as stated in his statement, expects future issues related to the region and asks to pay more attention to them than to these elections, which will not have popular resonance. “