Amazing brainstorming with 26th Chief of General Staff Ilker Başbuğ
Valuable My readers,
As the new year approaches 26th Chief of General Staff, historical researcher and writer İlker Başbuğ I had a long conversation with him about where the world is going and what could happen in the new year.
Here are the notes I took from that conversation:
26. Chief of General Staff İlker Başbuğ explained his thoughts on political and military developments in the world to Ugur Dundar.
What is the future promise?
The year 2023 is coming to an end, leaving the world’s humanity in a state of misery and despair. What will 2024 bring for the world? Will the problems be solved? Or will the world become a scene of brutal conflicts and fighting again?
In 2023, brutal wars break out in Ukraine and Gaza. The crimes against humanity committed in Gaza were merely monitored by many countries. Nothing can be done.
So, what does the future promise us?
America is facing a dangerous situation
If we start from the tragedy in Ukraine; There is no doubt that America’s tumultuous departure from Afghanistan on August 30, 2021 severely damaged America’s credibility. I wonder, did this result encourage Russia to attack Ukraine on February 24, 2022? Undoubtedly, this was one of the reasons why Russia was able to take the decision to attack so easily and courageously. There are also those who look at this situation differently.
America’s departure from Afghanistan has allowed America to participate more effectively in the Ukrainian-Russian war.
America is facing a dangerous situation now. America “simultaneously” provides weapons, ammunition and material aid to Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel. This is not easy, for example, there are problems in producing 155 mm artillery ammunition in a timely manner. For this When America began sending the ammunition it was going to send to Ukraine to Israel, the Ukrainian army faced problems on the front. There are some problems in producing missiles, especially those used against long-range ships, and in meeting the needs.
President Biden has asked Congress for an additional $106 billion in national security spending.
However, these problems cannot be solved with money alone. It also takes time.
When and how will the Russian-Ukrainian war end?
There is a “war of attrition” going on there now. Just like what happened in World War I…
Counterattacks by the Ukrainian army continued for five months. However, they managed to make 17 kilometers of progress. Now I stopped. However, by normal standards, they were expected to advance 30 kilometers per day. If that were the case, they would have reached Crimea by now. The Russian and Ukrainian armies would sometimes spend weeks advancing several hundred metres.
So what is the reason for this?
According to Ukrainian Chief of General Staff Zalozhny; The technology possessed by both sides on the battlefield allows both sides to detect every movement of the other side and strike targets with complete accuracy.
Ukrainian Chief of General Staff: If the war extends, Ukraine will not have soldiers to fight
America and the West support Ukraine in terms of technology, weapons, ammunition and materials. According to Zalozny, this only allows Ukraine to continue the war for now. But it is not enough for Ukraine to win the war. Long-range missile systems and tanks have now arrived. F-16s left for next year.
Now the question that must be asked here is:
I wonder if the Biden administration wants Ukraine not to be defeated, but also wants Ukraine not to have a military victory? We should not forget that Putin is in a sensitive situation in Crimea. America does not want to confront Russia.
There is no doubt that prolonging the war is in Russia’s interest. Russia is three times stronger than Ukraine in terms of population and ten times more powerful economically than Ukraine.
Zalozny says that Russia’s human losses are no less than 150,000. Given its large population, Russia finds it difficult to absorb this loss. This is a fact. But the situation in Ukraine is more difficult.
Zalozny does not hesitate to say frankly that if the war continues for a long time, one day there will be no soldiers left to fight.
In the early days, people watched this war on television as if they were watching an exciting movie or TV series. Today, the Ukrainian-Russian war is almost at the bottom of the global agenda. But there is a human tragedy happening there.
As for the humanitarian tragedy in Gaza. First let’s say this; America provides its assistance to Ukraine based on the United Nations Charter. There is a violation of the borders of the independent state.
The attacks in Gaza turn Israel into a terrorist state
Military aid to Israel is in a completely different situation. Whatever anyone says, this aid is provided to the State of Israel, which is working to expand areas of Jewish settlement in the occupied territories of the West Bank, ignoring international law, does not accept Palestine as a separate state, and punishes the civilian population of Gaza collectively. . These reasons make Israel a terrorist state.
Future questions regarding Gaza may include:
First, when and under what conditions will Israel end the massacre in Gaza? It seems that Israel and America aim to marginalize Hamas. But Hamas has thousands of militants. Israel may also fall into a quagmire in Gaza.
What will happen after the end of the war in Gaza?
Does the administration of Mahmoud Abbas bear responsibility for this place? The Abbas administration is not wanted even in the West Bank today. About 80% of Palestinians here want Abbas to resign.
Perhaps the basic condition for better days, peace and a solution in the post-war period is a change in the Prime Minister in Israel and the Palestinian administration in the West Bank.. I hope that what happened in Gaza will push Israel to accept the two-state solution.
The real, frightening dream for the coming years is the possibility of a conflict between America and China
The real nightmare for the coming years is the possibility of conflict between America and China. The reason is Taiwan..
China says it is pro-peace at every opportunity. But at every opportunity; It does not refrain from publicly calling for the structuring of alternative global organizations according to its own values and defining democracy and human rights according to its own understanding.
More importantly, when Chinese President Xi Jinping became president in 2012, total Chinese military spending was less than $50 billion. Today it is approximately $220 billion.
According to American intelligence sources; The Chinese president directed the authorities to ensure that China gets the opportunity to invade Taiwan in 2027. Some think tanks in America have well-known behavior. Many of these organizations have the support of the Pentagon. They are trying to project the image the Pentagon wants. Let us assume that this intelligence is true, Even 2027 is not an easily achievable goal for China.
Given the naval and air power of both sides, this becomes true.
China’s number is 92 compared to 122 major US warships.
Only 2 aircraft carriers versus 11.
Fighter aircraft: 988 versus 456.
The number of nuclear attack submarines is now 6 versus 53. The number of nuclear missile submarines is currently 6 versus 14.
This is a fact.
But there is another truth. We must try to understand this fact.
If China attacks Taiwan with a mistake similar to what Putin made when he attacked Ukraine…
What if Chinese President Xi one day attacks Taiwan based on miscalculations similar to those made by Russian President Putin when he decided to attack Ukraine?
For this reason, America gives the highest priority to force and deterrence in the region to prevent any mistake committed by the Chinese President.
In fact, America is not happy with what is happening in Gaza. But it should not be overlooked that one of the reasons that ties Biden’s hands is the presidential elections scheduled for November 2024.
Elections that may strengthen the Chinese president’s position on Taiwan are also imminent.
There are elections in Taiwan on January 13, 2024. The ruling Democratic Development Party calls for strengthening relations with America. On the other hand, the opposition party calls for reopening diplomatic relations with China. It is approaching China favorably.
What if the opposition party wins the elections in Taiwan?
No matter what others say; The Taiwan issue constitutes a real test for America. America’s loss of Taiwan could be the beginning of the loss of its political, military and economic superiority in the world after a certain period.
Unfortunately, the assessments or predictions made so far do not allow the people of the world to look very positively at the coming years.
Besides all this; I’m afraid there will be another big nightmare that may happen in 2024.
What will happen if Donald Trump wins the US presidential elections in 2024?
It is very likely that America will enter into a political crisis.
For all the mistakes America has made so far, it is quite frightening to even think about the chaotic international situations that would arise if Trump pursued a foreign policy that envisioned drawing America in and isolating it.
I hope this nightmare does not come true.
The last word; Peace on the international scene depends on the presence of more than one international center of power and the balance between the centers of power.
release date: 05:00, 23 November 2023