In its forecasts for 2024, the London-based politics and economics magazine The Economist has listed 10 crucial developments that are likely to occur in the coming year.
The magazine, which is distinguished every year by its analyses, predictions and speculation about the future, published its forecasts for 2024 this year. Whether it is an increase in armed conflicts, a redrawing of the map of global energy resources, or rapid advances in artificial intelligence, the world is changing at a dizzying pace.
Tom Standage, editor of the Next World 2024 issue, writes 10 trends to watch closely in the coming year. Here are 10 developments that markets, investors and consumers will be watching closely in the coming year:
1- Elections around the world
Elections around the world, in which more voters than ever will participate, will highlight the state of global democracy. In 2024, more than 70 elections will be held in countries with a population of about 4.2 billion people. The number of voters will reach more than half of the world’s population for the first time. However, although more votes will be cast than ever before, this does not mean that there will be more democracy. Many elections will neither be free nor fair.
2- America’s global choice
Voters and the courts will decide on Donald Trump, who has a one in three chance of regaining the presidency. The outcome may depend on tens of thousands of voters in a few swing states. But the consequences will be global, affecting everything from climate policy to military support for Ukraine. The truth is that election fraud in Russia may mean that Vladimir Putin’s fate depends more on American voters than on Russian voters.
3- Europe must accelerate
In this direction, Europe must step up and provide Ukraine with the military and economic support necessary to fight a long conflict, while also paving the way for eventual EU membership. This is the right thing to do, as well as protecting against the risk of Trump returning to power and withdrawing his support.
4- A problem in the Middle East
Hamas’ attack on Israel and Israel’s response to Gaza have caused turmoil in the region and dispelled the notion that the world could continue to ignore the plight of Palestinians. Will the conflict in the Middle East escalate into a broader regional conflict or provide a new opportunity for peace? For America, this also constitutes a test of its ability to adapt to a more complex and threatening world.
5- Multipolar disorder
As for the American plan to shift towards Asia and focus more on its competition with a rising China, it was derailed by the war in Ukraine and Gaza. Russia is also fragmented and losing influence. Frozen conflicts are thawing, and local cold wars are flaring up around the world. Instability is increasing in the Sahel region. The world is preparing for more conflicts with the end of the “unipolar era” in America.
6- The Second Cold War
As China’s growth slows, tensions over Taiwan rise, and America continues to limit China’s access to advanced technologies, the “new Cold War” rhetoric has intensified. But Western companies trying to reduce the dependence of their supply chains on China will find this much easier said than done. At the same time, both sides will seek to capture the “middle powers” of the Global South, especially their green resources.
7- Geography of new energy
The transition to clean energy is creating new green superpowers and redrawing the map of energy resources. Lithium, copper and nickel are much more important, while oil and gas and the areas that dominate their supplies are less important. Competition for green resources is reshaping geopolitics and trade and creating some unexpected winners and losers. On the other hand, a “green backlash” is occurring among voters who view climate-friendly policies as an elite conspiracy against ordinary people.
8- Economic uncertainty
Western economies performed better than expected in 2023, but have not yet reached a plateau. Keeping interest rates “higher for longer” will be painful for both businesses and consumers, even if a recession is avoided. China may fall into deflation.
9- Artificial intelligence has become a reality
Companies are adopting AI, regulators are regulating it, and technology experts are continuing to develop it. Debates about the best regulatory approach and whether debates about the benefits of “existential risk” will intensify. Unexpected uses and abuses will continue to occur. There are many concerns about the impact of artificial intelligence on employment and the potential for election interference. The real biggest impact is faster encoding.
10-Unifying the world?
Maybe the world will put aside ideological differences and enjoy the Paris Olympics, astronauts orbiting the moon and the men’s T20 cricket World Cup. But those hoping for global unity are likely to be equally surprised.
release date: 14:36, 27 November 2023