Big sales in the US markets late last week helped the price of Bitcoin (BTC) surpass $ 49,000. However, BTC struggled to extend its rise above $ 50,000, a level of psychological resistance, as Investors were cautious about the Federal Reserve’s Taper Timing.
In summary, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell offered a slightly pessimistic outlook during his speech Friday at the annual Jackson Hole symposium.. At one point, he refrained from hinting at when the Fed would begin to withdraw its $ 120 billion a month asset purchase program.
Powell noted that they would begin to scale back the program sometime in late 2021Although he admitted that the Delta variant of Covid-19, which is spreading rapidly, could be a roadblock.
“We will carefully evaluate the data received and the evolution of the risks“, said.
“The timing and pace of the adjustments are not intended to be a direct signal about when interest rates will take off.”
At the same time, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the price of basic personal consumption (PCE) annually, which the Fed considers its preferred inflation metric, remained unchanged at 3.6%, approximately 1.6% above the target set by the central bankl.
Things to consider next week
The first days of the week do not have major macroeconomic events that can directly or indirectly affect Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency market.
But on September 1, the Automatic Data Processing Research Institute (ADP) to reveal August private sector employment data. Also, investors will likely look at the ISM (Supply Management Institute) manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) for its paid price component. In this way, they could calibrate input price pressures in the manufacturing sector to determine inflation..
On Friday, nonfarm payroll (NFP) data will show that the US economy added 763,000 jobs in August, down 19% from 943,000 in July. As a result, Disappointing employment data could delay the Fed’s decision to cut its asset purchase program and help boost the price of risky assets, including Bitcoin.
Technically, the price of Bitcoin has been trending within a short-term ascending channel, hinting at a move towards the lower trend line (near $ 47,000) for a potential pullback towards the upper trend line (above $ 50,000).
An extended sell-off below the channel’s lower trend line could risk pushing BTC / USD exchange rates down towards the 200-4H exponential moving average. (200-4H EMA; the yellow wave) at close to $ 44,600.
The bearish target looks closer to what can be seen on the weekly chart.
The BTC / USD exchange rate has been testing the 0.786 line (near $ 50.779) of the Fibonacci retracement chart. after an upward movement of 75.36%. As a result, an extended retracement move from said upper price limit brings Bitcoin’s next downside target near the 0.618-Fib line (around $ 43.886).
Instead, a neutral RSI reading (below 70) can help the bulls regain $ 50,000. for a bullish breakout move. In doing so, they could target levels near $ 60,000 as the next upside target.
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