The report details that in the first days of November, people’s mobility, which correlates with economic activity, exceeded pre-pandemic levels. A) Yes, The gradual normalization of economic activity is allowing a greater homogeneity in the sectoral rates of recovery, which until now had been taking place in a way that was too uneven.
According to CEP-XXI, the branches that at the beginning of the year were the ones that fell the most compared to 2019 (such as gastronomy, tourism, passenger transport and cultural activities) were the ones that recovered the most in recent months, as the activities that had been leading the economic improvement began to moderate their rate of expansion.
Specific, in September 433 of 622 productive sectors (70%) improved their performance compared to the first quarter of the year.
“The increase in circulation is directly impacting the activities most affected by the pandemic, such as gastronomy, tourism, recreational and cultural services, passenger transport and certain segments of the retail trade (particularly that of clothing and footwear, with a greater presence in shopping centers) “, explains the monthly overview of CEP-XXI.
Meanwhile, he adds, the improvement of hydrocarbon sector –Indirectly benefited from the increase in mobility– also has been a driver of the recent recovery, with the consequent impact on the industrial supplier chain, which contributes to the economic recovery gradually becoming more homogeneous.
On the other hand, it mentions the latest INDEC data, which indicates that the industry grew 1.1% monthly in September, and in annual terms it improved 14.3% compared to the same month of 2019 and 8.6% compared to September 2018. In addition, in September 2021 almost 80% of the industrial sectors operated above the levels of September 2019 and the use of installed capacity in the industry exceeded 65%, its highest level since April 2018.
As a direct impact of this improvement, after four months of stability the industry created jobs again in September, and already has 42,000 more workers than at the end of 2019 (an increase of 3.7%).
In this sense, the report highlights the pharmaceutical sector (which reached the highest level in its history, with more than 40,000 formal jobs), the agricultural machinery sector (with the highest number of formal jobs since 2013) and certain segments of the food and beverage industry, such as beer, animal protein, animal feed or mill products, which currently have the highest number of workers for at least 25 years.
It also points out that from January to September, industrial production grew 6.0% compared to 2019, which makes it one of the fastest industrial recoveries in the world, behind that of China (+ 13.4%), but above from countries such as Brazil (0.0%), Chile (+ 2.0%), Spain (-3.2%), France (-5.8%), Italy (-1.1%), India (- 2.5%), Mexico (-2.9%), Germany (-6.7%), United States (-1.3%) or Japan (-6.0%).
One of the notable sectors of the recovery is that of agricultural machinery, which is having the best year so far in the 21st century, with the production of tractors on track to have the highest level since 1986. In turn, it is noted that in recent months sectors that had been greatly affected by the pandemic (such as hydrocarbons and its value chain, and footwear) recovered vigorously.
In the case of footwear, the highest production in five years was achieved in September, while the improvement in the oil industry strongly reactivated the production of seamless tubes and general-purpose machinery.
Regarding the advanced data for October and November, based on the energy consumption of the industry, in the tenth month of the year production grew 2.4% compared to October 2019 (month in which there were three working days more than in October 2021, which featured an “extra” long weekend due to the October 12 holiday) with 9 out of 14 industrial sectors expanding compared to 2019.
In turn, crude steel production grew 17.3% in October compared to two years ago, cement shipments increased 20.1% and the manufacture of motor vehicles improved 28.8%.
Preliminary data from the last 4 weeks show that industrial energy consumption was the highest in four years for this time of year, surpassing by 4.4% to 2020, by 3.1% to 2019, and 2.8 % as of 2018.