This Thursday, central bank (BCRA) increased the minimum rate paid by fixed terms, with the aim of trying to make the savings in pesos do not lose in front of the inflation.
From this Friday, the deposits of people for up to $ 10 million (before the rate was $ 1 million) they pay at least 39% nominal annually, while the rest of the depositors will receive a minimum of 37%. As calculated by the economist Nery persichini, from GMA Capital, projecting annual inflation of 54% in 2022, retailers will receive a negative rate of -5.3% and the rest of -7.2%.
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Despite this, the rise means a slight improvement for depositors who, according to estimates of Personal Investments Portfolio, they had rnegative returns of between 6 and 8 points throughout 2021. Bank clients perceived the poor performance of time deposits and it showed in the numbers: the last three months of last year the balance of time deposits fell in real terms.
Negative rate effect
The data published by the BCRA show that the Fixed deadlines from the private sector grew nominal 1.9% (that is, in amount) in the last month of 2021 and in total, they closed the year with an average balance of $ 3.3 trillion pesos.
However, when discount the effect of inflation December, fixed terms show a monthly decline of 1.6%, which is added to the falls of 1.9% and 2.1% registered in October and November.
This is how the consultant calculated it LCG, which indicated: “Term deposits fell for the third month in a row in real terms: -1.6% monthly in December. Both wholesale and retail loans continue to show negative performance, reaching rates of 0.6% per month and 4.5% per month in real terms, respectively ”.
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In this regard, the monthly monetary report of the BCRA recognized the royal fall of fixed terms of up to $ 20 million, but highlighted that the behavior of depositors was not homogeneous throughout the month, given that deposits presented greater dynamism in the second fortnight. “This change in behavior was associated with the higher disposable income of families when collecting bonuses,” explained the entity.
For the firm’s economists, it is not clear that he slight increase who had the rates since this Friday scope to convince savers to put their pesos back in the banks in such a way that they do not put pressure on prices or on the dollar. In that line, LCG foresees that the performance keep being modest.
“The deposits are very susceptible to instability political and economic; additionally the higher expected devaluation it could continue to put downward pressure on term placements ”, the consultancy closed.