Destroying Hamas will take years, not weeks… and the chances of reaching a solution are slim
Israel’s bloody war in the Gaza Strip enters its second month, with tragic loss of civilian life and calls for a ceasefire going unheeded, as questions mount about how to end the war, who will be the victor and at what cost and who will control Gaza after the end.
Israel’s military plan calls for a full invasion of the Strip and house-to-house fighting in Gaza, which will take years, not weeks, according to Washington Institute researcher Michael Knights, who says it took Hamas 15 years to prepare the tunnels and strengthen some powerful defensive methods between above-ground and underground fortifications. According to Knights, these reinforcements could include potential minefields, explosive devices, anti-blind mines and booby-trapped buildings, adding that what makes the military operation “complicated for Israel are the hostages, including children, women and elderly people who are believed to be detained within a network of tunnels that stretches for hundreds of kilometers.” .
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stressed that “the war will continue until Israel regains full control over Gaza”, rejecting calls for a ceasefire and telling US network ABC on Monday evening that he may consider small tactical pauses to allow aid to arrive. , or the exodus of hostages from the Gaza Strip.
Speaking to the American network, he explained his vision for the post-war period, indicating that Israel will take control of the security of the Gaza Strip indefinitely. He said: “We have seen what happens when we do not take responsibility for security, because what we are facing is the outbreak of Hamas terrorism on a scale we cannot imagine.”
A war that has been going on for a long time
Observers believe there are many reasons why the war is likely to continue for a long time. Because every party has broad goals that are difficult to achieve. Hamas wants to wipe Israel off the map, and Israel wants to destroy Hamas as the political force that governs Gaza and as the military force that can threaten it again. Achieving both goals is difficult. Israel has not disappeared from the geographical map, just as Hamas will not disappear: even if the Israeli army killed all its leaders, others would appear and perhaps more extremist movements would emerge. Former national security advisor to Israel, Yaakov Amidror, said in press statements that “Israel’s goal of destroying Hamas is a major military challenge that will probably take two to six months.”
Leaders on both sides appear unwilling to reach an agreement. Israel is seeking revenge for the widespread attack it suffered on October 7, while Hamas leaders see what happened as an unprecedented success, calling for support to be mobilized for the Palestinians and seeing the conflict as an opportunity to strike painful blows to Israel.
American support
Despite international calls and regional pressure to reach a ceasefire or humanitarian truce, everything the West and the United Nations can do seems limited, in light of the American position that has made Washington the only strong ally of Israel, at a time when the United States has blocked every opportunity within… Security Council ceasefire.
US President Joe Biden has repeatedly said that Israel has the right to defend itself and has pushed Congress to give it $14.3 billion in military aid. Biden also urged Israel to make greater efforts to limit civilian casualties and avoid further casualties, while Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is practicing shuttle diplomacy unprecedented in the Middle East since Henry Kissinger in the 1970s. To urge Israel to stop its bloody bombing of civilians, but to no avail.
But the high number of civilian deaths places a great moral burden on the US administration and intensifies domestic pressure on the Biden administration to push Israel to adopt a humanitarian truce or quickly end military operations, while it is unclear when the administration Biden will make his decisions. this step, and with what number of civilian deaths. This number increases the more Israel loses popularity internationally. The Biden administration has issued a clear warning about declining support for Israel in American and Western circles in general, at a time when pro-Palestinian demonstrations against Israel and calls for an end to the war are increasing.
Next day scenarios
When the US Secretary of State attended an Israeli cabinet meeting, he asked what the Israeli government’s plans were for the day after the war ended, and it turned out that there were no clear plans. Some opinions indicate that Netanyahu represents a major obstacle to any effort to stop the war and find a sustainable and peaceful way forward that could offer prospects for a political path towards achieving a two-state solution and sharing land between Palestinians and Israelis, in Thus Nulling the leverage of resistance movements and nullifying the attractiveness of Hamas leaders who promote military resistance is the only way to liberate the land.
Over the years of his tenure as prime minister, Netanyahu has been the most opposed to any kind of political solution. Last Sunday, speaking on CNN, Jewish Senator Bernie Sanders expressed hope that the Israelis would get rid of Netanyahu to make way for a possible solution.
Even if Israel achieves its military objectives against Hamas, the issue of returning Gaza to rule will be rejected by the American administration, and there will be an urgent need for an international and regional partnership in which a moderate, legitimate and responsible. , providing it with political and financial support with strong international oversight and developing plans for its restitution, reconstruction and stabilization.
Although the US administration has repeatedly declared that the only way to resolve the conflict is a two-state solution, current circumstances make this vision difficult to realize. However, there is still discussion about the possibility of the Palestinian Authority participating in the governance of Gaza, even if the Authority believes that such participation is weak and ineffective. Israeli officials are talking privately about involving the international community in the future management of Gaza, but there appears to be little appetite for undertaking this task amid less than promising prospects.
Former CIA director of analysis Beth Saner says the reason behind Netanyahu’s statements that Israel takes responsibility for security in the Gaza Strip is because he knows that in reality there are no other options, and there is no a real alternative. Saner said in statements to CNN (Tuesday) that the Palestinian Authority cannot impose control over the Gaza Strip, and that Egypt is not considering taking on this responsibility or participating in a multinational force.
John Kirby said in statements to the same network (Tuesday morning) that the reoccupation of Gaza by Israeli forces is not a good thing and is not in the interests of Israel and the Israeli people. He explained that much of Blinken’s talks in the region have focused on the situation in Gaza after the conflict, the form of government and many of the questions posed to regional and Israeli partners. The White House strategic communications coordinator admitted that eliminating Hamas is difficult. He said: “We certainly agree that Hamas is not just an organization, but there is an ideology behind this organization, and it is difficult to eliminate the ideology.” He added: “It is important to remember that we still believe in the two-state solution, and President Biden supports this solution as a workable vision and promise for the creation of a democratic Jewish state and a free and independent Palestinian state. Even though we are in the midst of conflict, the President has not given up and we continue to engage with our partners across the region to get back on track towards a two-state solution.” Analysts believe that even if Israel wins the short-term battle to destroy the Gaza Strip, it will lose the long-term war, at a time when it still seems unclear how Israel can win and how it can pave the way for stop the war.