After two consecutive years of contraction, Argentina’s poultry exports fell sharply in the first eight months of 2023.
The latest report from IES Consultores shows that from January to August last year, the country’s external sales were US$120 million, a decline of 51.4% of the annual cumulative impact, due to the impact of market closures and forced school closures due to avian influenza. .
In terms of tons, total overseas exports were 102,000 tons, a decrease of 32.2% from 151,000 tons in 2022.
The average export price fell by 27.2% in foreign currency terms to an average of US$1,205 per ton.
The sector’s trade surplus was US$4.3 million, a decrease of 44.3% from 2022.
Production
So far in 2023, poultry meat production has totaled 1.518 million tons, down 0.6% from 2022. The report pointed out that poultry meat production declined due to severe heat waves and avian influenza.
Similarly, a total of 494 million head were slaughtered during the same period, a 0.3% decrease from the same period in 2022. The average weight of poultry reached 3.07 kg/head, down 0.3% from the previous year and slightly higher than the average of the past five years (3.01 kg/head).
Slaughter volume has fallen less than production, and the difference between the two is the average weight of birds slaughtered, which explains the larger fall in tonnage.
In August 2023, production and slaughter volume decreased by 5.9% and 2.6% respectively year-on-year. Regardless, production is expected to remain stable for the remainder of 2023 as chicken performance outperforms consumption and prices rise relatively.
consume
Over the past three years, the Argentine population’s poultry meat intake has remained stable, reaching almost record levels, given the population’s difficult income situation.
Although poultry meat has become relatively expensive compared to other meats, the real wage level of the population has a positive impact on demand as it is produced in greater quantities for household tables.
According to work by IES Consultores, apparent consumption has increased by 2.4% so far in 2023 compared with the same period in 2022, and by 1% per capita; apparent poultry meat consumption totaled 1,387 birds in 2022, compared with 1,420 in 2023 Only.
On a per capita basis, the average weight per inhabitant during the same period was 46 kg, which represents a slight improvement (due to population growth), 1% more than a year ago.
price
Official surveys show that chicken retail prices increased by 136% year-on-year in August 2023, higher than last year’s overall price increase of 104.3%.
rise commodity As the price of chicken abroad increases, it has an impact on the entire poultry market. Experts warn that in this case the price relationship, while not yet worrying, has shown signs in recent months that it is no longer favorable for poultry as beef prices have stagnated.
In August 2023, whole chicken prices rose strongly by 16% per month (lower than beef and pork), with the annual increase calculated by the Beef Promotion Institute (Ipcva) at 136%.
In this sense, in the first eight months of 2023, the price of whole chickens has increased by a cumulative 136%. This increase is higher than the increase for beef cuts (78%) and pork (87%).
View
The IES Consultores report concludes that “poultry activity is recovering strongly following the uncertainty surrounding avian influenza in the industry.”
On the one hand, the acceleration of inflation, which has impacted real wages while employment has not yet recovered, will continue to drive the industry from the internal demand side due to the substitution effect, as animal protein is the most economical.
On the other hand, avian plague had a serious impact on the supply of the industry, so prices, domestic consumption and poultry meat exports were affected, although they only recovered by the end of August, so the situation for poultry meat is expected to improve. the department.