In the last two weeks there has been a 15% rebound.
The medium-term outlook remains bullish, according to the analyst.
Two weeks after his last market bulletin, analyst Willy Woo claims that the accumulation of bitcoin, by both short-term and long-term investors, is holding up.
Corporate treasuries have also continued the bitcoin acquisition. “Capital parked in the form of stablecoins is flowing into bitcoin. The outlook in the medium term (in about three months) is bullish, ”says the analyst.
Bitcoin is currently in the process of consolidation below USD 50,000, maintains the analyst. “Once this is complete, a continuation of the uptrend is expected,” says Woo.
The analyst focuses on the behavior of retail investors and states in his market bulletin that, while retail investors holders with more than 100 BTC they tend to switch from a buy tactic to a sell one, retailers, those with less than 1 BTC, are shown as buyers continuously.
‘Bitcoin bear markets occur when retailers stop buying. At the moment, buying follows a very exponential curve, which is associated with the middle phase of a bull market, ”says Woo.
Corporate treasuries keep accumulating BTC
Willy Woo summarizes in the following graph, discussed in the CriptoNoticias markets bulletin last Monday, August 16, the evolution of the BTC held in corporations (light blue) as part of their treasury reserve (182,000 BTC). It also includes the BTC corresponding to the bitcoin ETFs (purple), which total 682,000 BTC.
The total institutionally held BTC is 864,000 BTC (gold). This graph shows institutional investments from 2013 to the present.
Woo points out that the BTC held by corporations represents an indirect way of gaining exposure to bitcoin through the stocks of such companies. It also draws attention to corporations, which continue to show an increase in BTC acquired, even in recent months of bearish price action.
All segments of holders have been buying BTC
The following graph shows the evolution of BTC held by different cohorts of holders.
In the case of whales, those holders with more than 1,000 BTC (green) and with more than 10,000 BTC (mustard), they show recent growth, despite the correction.
In these two segments, there was a decrease in the BTC retained at the beginning of the years, according to the graph, which was due to a possible profit taking, when the price approached its historical maximum.
The holders with 100-1,000 BTC (pink) they bought at a time when the price was rising towards its maximum and they have remained so far with very few sales.
For their part, retail investors, with less than 1 BTC (blue), They are the ones who have kept buying BTC in a sustained way, just as Woo pointed out above.
These trends range from mildly bullish to “macro” bullish, Woo says.
Stablecoins return to the bitcoin market
The study notes that, in the past months, there has been a strong capital turnover out of BTC and cryptocurrencies. «This capital has not left the ecosystem. It has been maintained, waiting for an opportune moment to buy again ”, says the analyst.
As can be seen in the graph, the flow of stablecoins, that left bitcoin since the beginning of the year, is being used again to buy bitcoin since the beginning of July.
As is known, stablecoins are used as a resource to combat volatility. After the bitcoin correction, part of the capital invested in this cryptocurrency was used to acquire stablecoins, pending a better buying opportunity. It is, Woo points out, a trend from moderately bullish to macro bullish.
The holders long-term are buying
The following graph is called the “Bitcoin Buy and Sell Temperature Map.” The green circles represent purchase moments, proportional in size to the volume transferred, while the red circles represent sales.
After the historical maximum of April, in the correction that began, the important sales of May are appreciated. After July 20, when the low of USD 30,000 was reached, buying becomes predominant, it can be seen in the chart. In the last days shopping continues in the recent price range between $ 40,000 and $ 47,000, according to the graph.
Woo highlights that the on-chain data allows associating BTC withdrawals from exchanges with purchases for long-term investment and for speculation. «Through forensic on-chain techniques, movements to and from the holders strong hands and speculators », says the specialist.
Investors seized the opportunity to buy very strongly below the $ 42,000 resistance ceiling, and the same pattern is replicating right now, below the $ 50,000 level, although with less force, assures the analyst. «However, I hope that the purchasing power will overcome the resistance [de los USD 50.000]». This trend is rated by Woo as bullish in the short term.
Imbalance between supply and demand of bitcoin
For an in-depth study of the supply shock, Woo uses three estimates, which he defines as coins that are not available for sale relative to those that are available.
The study then runs an algorithm to search for three price series, each associated with the proposed supply shock scenarios. In each case, the BTC valuation that corresponds to each scenario is sought. “This results in a price estimate based on supply and demand. You can see the results in the following graph, “says the study.
Although there are estimates of the price of bitcoin, according to the different supply shock scenarios, it can be seen that, towards the end of the curve, the different series of points are above the price, which reflects an upward trend, says the report.
Performing an interpolation of the three scenarios, a curve is derived with the estimate of the bitcoin price (red dotted line). The valuation of the price of this cryptocurrency, based on supply and demand, is currently USD 55,000says Willy Woo.
At the time of this writing, BTC is trading at $ 45,845, 18% less than what Woo’s valuation model proposes.
The BTC supply shock valuation uses a search for similar past prices, with similar levels of BTC unavailability, Woo notes. The areas highlighted in green in the previous graph, show the areas where the method is valid, especially when the low availability of BTC is not at its maximum levels, which allows examining the past supply shock, to find a price match, holds the specialist.
If we turn to a view of the supply shock with oscillator, the dynamics of undervaluation can be appreciated from another point of view, the study maintains. “We would be in a buy zone again, so the price should go up,” says Woo.
For a macro view that uses this family of metrics, the following graph shows the supply shock of the holders long-term, says the specialist. “Although it is less sensitive, it is quite accurate in locating the accumulation and reaccumulation bands of the macro cycle,” the study concludes.
“We are moving into a strong re-accumulation zone to fuel the next phase of the cycle,” says Woo.
In his previous prediction, reviewed by CryptoNews, Woo had referred to the bitcoin market as a buyers’ bazaar, on August 3. In this prediction, the analyst highlighted that the price needed to reach USD 55,000 to find balance with the low level of availability of BTC.