Bitcoin (BTC) could rise to $ 100,000 or plummet to $ 30,000 by Christmas, but one of its best-known analysts is betting that the price will hit the moon.
In a upgrade from Twitter on Thursday, Plan B, Creator of BTC’s family of stock-to.flow prediction models, it cast new doubts about a downward move by the major cryptocurrency.
PlanB focuses on the “key” months left
With the BTC / USD pair trading at $ 47,000 this week, PlanB has every reason to be confident.
Your recent prediction of a low monthly close for August exactly matches current prices, and if the remaining four are just as accurate, Bitcoin could end the year with a price of $ 135,000.
The first incarnation of stock-to-flow targets an average BTC price of $ 100,000 in this halving cycle, but the May crash did affect his accuracy.
Nevertheless, PlanB upholds that prediction, arguing that it has not yet been invalidated and that there are no better proven alternatives.
One such alternative model, which now seems unlikely to become a reality, is the logarithmic graph of “diminishing returns” Originally crafted by Bitcointalk forum user “Trololo” in 2014.
An adjusted version estimates a price of $ 30,000 for the BTC / USD pair later this year, something PlanB considers less likely than the $ 100,000 of stock-to-flow.
“The next few months will be crucial”, added in the comments an attached chart comparing the two models.
When a flysheet?
As Cointelegraph reported, Short-term BTC price analysis is tilted to the side of caution this week.
While $ 50,000 remains out of reach for support, opinions differ on the possible impact of the annual US Federal Reserve summit in Jackson Hole, to be held shortly.
Despite rising 60% from recent lows of $ 29,000, Bitcoin has yet to test final resistance to cement $ 50,000, let alone the all-time highs of $ 64,500 from April.
Looking at the bigger picture, market sentiment remains optimistic, with data hinting at a further rise before the end of the year. This would mimic other years of bull markets after the halving, especially the double top of 2013.
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