Brazil is getting closer to the october elections, when the confrontation between the right-wing president is likely to take place Jair bolsonaro and the former president of the left Luiz Incio Lula ‘da Silva, which could not occur in 2018.
A recent survey by Banco Genial / Quaest Pesquisas gives the PT leader as the winner, although he should go to the second round: Lula will beat Bolsonaro 45% to 23%, and 54% to 30% in the ballotage.
But nevertheless, the poll showed that support for both candidates dropped two percentage points from the previous poll in December. The former judge Sergio Moro -which rose to fame after investigating the Lava Jato Case-, is in third place (9%) and dropped one point in voting intention.
micron in Brazil: Jair Bolsonaro “welcomes” the most contagious variant
Overlooking the reelection, and after two years without a party, last November Bolsonaro joined the Liberal Party. Lula has not yet confirmed his candidacy, but you already have the path released by Justice -In 2018 it had not been possible to present Clean Record law, since he was sentenced in the second instance for a corruption case– and last year she dedicated herself to weaving alliances with the former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso and the ex-governor of San Pablo, Geraldo Alckmin, in addition to regional figures.
This year will be complex for Bolsonaro, with the elections a few months and the problems in the economy as a backdrop. Brazil closed 2021 with a inflation of 10.06%, the highest in six years, and well above the official goal of 5.25%. The central bank I already anticipated that the inflation will also not stay on target this year, so a “significantly restrictive” cycle of raise interest rates, which will have an impact on the cost of credit.
Last year the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) announced seven consecutive hikes in the benchmark interest rate, Selic, from a historic low of 2% to the current 9.25%, and another 150 basis point hike is already expected next February.
Record: Brazil ended 2021 with 10% inflation, the highest in six years
The economy is the biggest problem in the country, according to 37% of those surveyed by Quaest. Among the main concerns is the unemployment (12.6% according to the latest data for the third quarter of 2021), the increase (which would be only 0.28% this year, according to the latest BCB survey) and the inflation. In fact, 73% of those surveyed think that Bolsonaro has done a bad job on the fight against inflation.
51% of respondents said that your ability to make ends meet worsened in the past three months.
The price rise -especially in the transport and the energy– also eroded the effect of aid by pandemic that in 2020 had given him peaks of popularity to Bolsonaro. Last year, the president gave a legislative battle to dodge the spending ceiling and launch your social plan Auxlio Brasil. The program, which will run until December of this year, distributes 400 reais (US $ 72) a month to some 17 million families.
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The concern for the coronavirus also grows as the micron variant progress in the country: 28% of those surveyed said it was their main concern, versus 19% in the December survey. In line with his speech throughout the pandemic, Bolsonaro said micron was welcome and slip that might even be a virus product of some vaccine.
“People who really understand it say that it has a very high propagation capacity, but a very low lethality,” he said in an interview with Gazeta Brasil. “They say that it could even be a virus product of the vaccine,” he added, noting that some specialists “say that the micron is welcome and could target the end of the pandemic“.
Finally, 50% of those surveyed believe that the Bolsonaro government is bad, while 25% define it as regular and only 22% positive.