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Kiev forces are preparing to repel a third attack on Avdiivka in the east of the country

After Moscow launched a large-scale attack in mid-October aiming to capture Avdiivka, located in eastern Ukraine, Kiev announced on Tuesday that it expected a third Russian attack in the region, while the Russian military announced on Tuesday that it had shot down 17 Ukrainian drones over the sea, Lions and the Crimean peninsula are regularly targeted by this type of attack.

A damaged residential building in Avdiivka, Donetsk region (AFP)

The industrial town of Avdiivka is located in Donbass, eastern Ukraine, and has been virtually on the front line since before the Russian invasion in February 2022, as pro-Moscow separatist forces have been trying to occupy it since 2014.

“There will definitely be a third wave,” Avdiivka Mayor Vitaly Barabash said. The enemy regroups after the second wave of failed attacks. “It is rebuilding its reserves, both in terms of equipment and personnel.” In an interview with a Ukrainian TV channel he added: “It is very likely that they are ready for the third wave, but the weather conditions do not allow them to use the equipment.”

A Ukrainian soldier loads a projectile into a small multilateral rocket launcher system before firing at Russian forces at a site near the front line (Reuters)

Russian forces launched an attack on Avdiivka on October 10, but the first attempt caused heavy casualties, several news agencies reported.

Despite the ongoing attacks, Ukrainian forces confirm that they still stand firm and that around 1,600 people still reside in Avdiivka, which was home to around 30,000 people before the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

From inside one of the military trenches in the Ukrainian city of Donetsk (EPA)

Regarding the attack on Crimea, Kiev has not yet provided information on these attacks. Since Kiev began its counteroffensive this summer, it has stepped up its attacks on the Black Sea peninsula, captured by Russia in 2014.

The Russian Defense Ministry said air defense systems intercepted and destroyed a total of 17 drones launched from Ukraine on Tuesday morning over the Black Sea and Crimea. The ministry added on the Telegram application that 9 drones were destroyed by air defense systems and 8 were intercepted by the electronic warfare system. The governor of the Black Sea port of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvogaev, appointed by Russia, had already done previously. He said debris fell on the roof of a house in the village of Andreevka, on the outskirts of Sevastopol, causing it to catch fire for a short time. There was no information on possible victims.

The Russian government confirmed that Ukraine fired cruise missiles at a shipyard on the eastern coast of the peninsula on Saturday, noting that the missiles damaged a ship and caused debris to fall onto the pier.

An intelligence assessment issued by the British Ministry of Defense on developments in the war in Ukraine on Tuesday said there was almost certainly damage to a newly built small Russian warship, Ukrainian and Russian sources said Saturday. It was later bombed while docked at the Zaliv shipyard in the city of Kerch, east of the Crimean peninsula.

Two Ukrainian soldiers carry out maintenance work on a tank in the Zaporizhya region on Friday (Reuters)

The daily intelligence assessment published on the “X” (formerly Twitter) platform stated that the “Askold” ship of the “Karakorst” class, launched in 2021, had not started its work within the Russian Navy.

The incident occurred further east of Crimea than most long-range attacks for which Ukraine has claimed responsibility. The intelligence assessment indicated that Ukraine’s ability to strike shipbuilding infrastructure on the peninsula would likely prompt Russia to consider moving away from the front line, which would delay the delivery of new ships. In September, Kiev launched a missile attack in the city of Sevastopol against the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

On Monday evening, however, the American Institute for the Study of War announced, citing Russian military bloggers, that the Ukrainian army had successfully carried out operations in Kherson. The report said small assault groups crossed the Dnipro River and reached the other bank, diverting significant Russian combat resources and diverting attention from other positions along the front.

Emergency service workers appear at the site of a drone attack in Kharkiv, north-eastern Ukraine (EPA)

An aide to the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valery Zalozny, was killed when one of his birthday presents exploded. Zalozny announced Monday on Telegram: “My assistant and dear friend died today under tragic circumstances on his birthday among his relatives.” He wrote in his post: “It is an indescribable pain and a huge loss for the Ukrainian Armed Forces and for me personally.” He added that Major Gennady Chastyakov left behind a wife and 4 children. Police said in a statement that preliminary information indicates Chastyakov was killed by a hand grenade. His son (13 years old) was seriously injured. In the apartment the police found another 5 unexploded hand grenades. Zalozny recently made headlines with statements to British magazine The Economist that Ukraine’s defense campaign against Russian invasion has reached a dead end. The president’s office criticized the general for his detailed statements.

The capital of Crimea, Sevastopol (EPA)

On the other hand, the Russian Ministry of Defense released a group of former Ukrainian soldiers who decided to join the Russian Armed Forces in the “Bogdan Khmelnitsky” battalion. The correspondent of the Russian news agency Sputnik said: “The soldiers of the battalion took an oath of national loyalty to Russia and adherence to the Russian Constitution, as well as all military orders required of them by the Supreme Command, in addition to the military orders oath which includes loyalty and courageous defense of the homeland”.

According to the correspondent, at the end of last October the Ukrainian battalion was included in the Russian tactical combat operational formation “Cascade”, as it included former servicemen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces who had declared their desire to fight alongside Russia. The battalion commander, Andrei Tishchenko, confirmed that the fighters will head to the front line after being sworn in and that they have been training with various weapons at training camps.

Cars driving on Al Qurum Bridge last Saturday (AP)

Tishchenko said: “We have already sworn to the Ukrainian people, but there has been no betrayal of the Ukrainian people. The Ukrainian people are now hostages of the criminal Kiev regime, and we swear to the Russian people, but without betraying the people Ukrainian,” adding: “We are brothers, for the Ukrainian and Russian people are one.”

Tishchenko added, as quoted by the German agency, that the criteria for choosing “Cascade” are moral and physical condition and, in addition, each Ukrainian fighter is examined to find out whether he has committed military or criminal crimes. The commander said: “Contracts will be concluded with the volunteers on general conditions.”

At the same time, the former Ukrainian soldiers themselves believe that they will fight to liberate their country from the rule of Volodymyr Zelensky and that Russians are recognized as a people with rights in Ukraine.

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