Can the Rockets’ revolution unlock Jabari Smith Jr.?

Let’s rewind the tape and go back a little more than a calendar year to the 2022 draft. The top college prospects are sitting with their families waiting for Adam Silver to call. The first three names are already known, all that remains is to figure out the order of selection: Paolo Banchero from Duke, Chet Holmgren from Gonzaga e Jabari Smith Jr. from Auburn. Three players each for the three teams with the first three picks: Orlando Magic, Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets. All three are intriguing, and all three take turns occupying every possible combination in the draft rankings. On June 22, 2023, at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, the Magic selected Banchero, Holmgren’s Thunder and Smith Jr. to the Rockets. For the latter, this is indeed far from a failure. The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie wrote about him in one of his many pre-draft simulations: “He’s one of the best big men to come out of college basketball in a long time. His high school record was fantastic, his performance at Auburn was great, and his mechanics were elegant. At 2.08m, he can control the rebound and go for the break, creating havoc with his ability to build a shot. He can shoot both from mid-range and from three-point range. He averages 16 points and 7 rebounds per game while providing stout defense for the Tigers. He can switch on the perimeter and has great spin instincts on the weak side.”.

Smith Jr.’s abilities are visible to all, despite the fact that he did not attend prestigious universities such as Duke or Kentucky. But let’s make a narrative leap: His first year in Houston isn’t going to go as expected. Coming back to the present and looking at it in hindsight, there are many reasons, starting with the situation the Houston Rockets have been in for several seasons now.

The Texans finished the 2020-21 season with a league-worst 20-62 record, a season that featured rookies Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun in the NBA and during which they tried to fit Kevin into Porter Jr.’s system. The season that was rejected allowed him to receive the third overall pick in the draft, which later became Jabari Smith Jr., and the seventeenth overall pick, which the Rockets selected Tari Eason. A team full of young guys with no veterans to help it grow, considering Eric Gordon was homebound the entire time he was in Texas last season, only to be traded to the Los Angeles Clippers. The team is led by Stephen Silas, the coach chosen for the rebuilding process that began in the post-Harden era, who failed to instill the right mentality, as explained by veterans like Draymond Green and John Wall, who commented on the situation from the inside.

Jabari Smith Jr.’s rookie year fits into that context, with many careers in their infancy and young men searching for their identity. attacking half of the field. The No. 3 overall pick in the 2022 draft finished his freshman season averaging 12.8 points while shooting 40.8 percent from the field and shooting 47.5 percent from the field. As shown in the following graph (taken from AlexHoops’ multi-observation video), Auburn’s punter spent a significant portion of his time shooting from the spot: 4.9 three-point attempts per game compared to just 6.3 two-pointers they attempted. are a partial demonstration.

52% of Jabari Smith Jr.’s action last season came from set pieces or transition situations. Too little offensive involvement for a player of his quality. With coming Ime Udoka On the bench, the Rockets can expand the range of options Smith Jr. will be used in by using him more in the following situations:

• Using it in corner pressing situations: Sengun is a great passer, as we saw last season, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him more in high positions, a la Marc Gasol or Nikola Jokic, distributing balls from that position. Udoka with the Celtics often used these situations to create an advantage for Tatum and Brown, forcing them to receive on the tip or side with a large advantage over their marker, especially in transition situations with the Chicago formation (HERE is an explanation of the technical conditions).

• Let’s put this in post-middle: Jabari Smith Jr. played just 7% of his shots in the post last season, not a lot considering he’s a 6-foot-8 player with a 6-foot-5 wingspan who, while playing frequently from the 4, finds himself paired with more short and/or slow defenders. As Udoka told the Houston Chronicle last May 18, referring to the numerous lockdown situations he experienced in Boston: “When you have Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, you want to take advantage of their presence on the team, especially when opposing teams change defensively. You want to take advantage of the benefits of couples. We (in Houston) have players who can score and we will use that as our strength.” Last year, the Rockets finished 13th in isolation games played and 11th in isolation points allowed, while having the league’s fourth-worst offense.

• Using it as a cutter for the weak side: The ball, like last season, will often remain in the hands of Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun. Having Smith Jr. on the weak side as a forward that doesn’t push him to the perimeter could certainly increase Houston’s danger, especially in post situations played by the Turkish center, who often draws extra attention from defenses.

• Using it as a pick-and-roll blockerhaving the ability to both exit to the rim and open around the perimeter.
  While Udoka doesn’t use pick-and-rolls often, the skills Jabari Smith Jr. showed at Auburn could be a weapon for Houston.

However, it all depends on improving his three-point shooting: last season he made 30 percent of his three-point attempts on 4.9 attempts per game, which is well below the acceptable threshold. However, Jabari Smith Jr. has already shown improvement in the two Summer League games played this summer.

Not only did he score 71 points in 64 minutes by combining pick-and-pops with off-the-dribble attacks, but he also showed off shots around the rim while absorbing contact with a defender, an area of ​​the game where he struggled. last season. Proof of this is also evident in the 27 free throws earned in two games, almost all of which were decisive attacks on the basket. However, his struggles with three-point shooting—6/18 in summer league—remain an area of ​​improvement this season.

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Defensively, the Houston Rockets’ debacle, which ranked 29th in defensive efficiency with 118.6 points per 100 possessions, overshadowed the defensive abilities of individual players, including Jabari Smith Jr. While the Rockets allowed an average of 4 more points with him on the court than when he was on the bench, according to Cleaning the Glass, it’s interesting to understand what his defensive goals were. According to the Bball Index, Jabari Smith Jr. recorded 18.9% of his possessions (forwards who then drove to the rim), 17.5% of his secondary possessions, and 11.5% of his primary possessions: to be clear, the same grades as Draymond Greena. , Jayson Tatum and Jerami Grant are on duty.

Internally, Houston tracked Smith Jr.’s individual impact on defense and found that he was much more involved in the game after the All-Star break, which had a positive effect on his defense and the team’s defense. “I definitely think he got better as the season went on.”Rockets general manager Rafael Stone said. “At the beginning of the season he struggled with the physicality of his opponents, but over time this aspect has improved. And also recognizing the game situation, which almost all beginners really struggle with. Not when the ball is in front of you or you are defending it, but where you have to help, what is coming, what actions the opposing team is trying to take.”

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There is no doubt that Houston believes in Smith Jr.’s defensive potential. When they couldn’t see the game in person, they watched movies or TV shows. During group sessions, recordings of his defense marking smaller guards were constant. The Rockets spoke with coaches from schools Smith played against, and consistent feedback painted a picture of a versatile, multi-position stopper. Not only could he operate in a switch-heavy system (which new coach Ime Udoka had already begun to implement), but he could also contain the action in front of him.

When those qualities combined with the rest he had to offer, it was easy to see why Smith was listed as the top pick months before the 2022 draft. “It’s essentially the size of the center.”

– Stone said during the team’s pre-selection. “He is 2.08m tall with a 2.15m reach and is essentially a center with a unique ability to move his feet around the perimeter. Especially in the playoffs, when teams start to change more and more, his skills can be a great weapon. He has the size where he can be a rim protector, but at the same time he can move around the perimeter like someone physically smaller.”.