Computer shows coronavirus mutates due to human behavior

In the social sciences or experimental physics, the situation where the phenomenon being analyzed is affected by the presence of the observer or researcher himself is known as the “observer paradox”.Something similar may happen in Coronavirus disease. That is, paradoxically, what if humans’ behavior toward the virus contributes to its spread? mutation In different strains?

It’s a surprising but at the same time fascinating question that sparked research led by a team at Japan’s Nagoya University, published today in the prestigious journal nature communications. Using artificial intelligence technology and mathematical models, the team of scientists found: Human BehaviorMeasures such as restrictions and quarantines can affect the evolution of new strains of Covid-19.

Coronaviruses are known to be genetically more stable than viruses like influenza or HIV. However, SARS-CoV-2 evolved to be more transmissible early in its life cycle. Furthermore, we know that Covid is constantly generating new variants, such as Delta, Ómicron, or substrains of the latter called Eris or EG5. This is not entirely exceptional. Like any other organism, viruses evolve over time. Those with a survival advantage dominate the gene pool.

The question is why? Why does the Covid-19 virus mutate so much? The answer depends on many factors. But related research points to environmental factors influencing this evolution, including human behavior.He explained that by isolating patients and using Lockdown to control epidemichumans can alter viral evolution in complex ways.

An important concept in this interaction is viral load, refers to the number or concentration of virus per milliliter of body fluid. In SARS-CoV-2, higher viral loads in respiratory secretions increase the risk of droplet transmission. Therefore, viral load is related to the likelihood of transmitting the virus to other people. For example, viruses like Ebola have extremely high viral loads, while the common cold has lower viral loads.

However, the virus must perform a careful balancing act, as increasing the maximum viral load may be beneficial but also dangerous to its survival. Having too much viral load can make a person very sick (or even die) spread virus to others.

When humans restrict themselves, the new coronavirus becomes more “secret”

Along these lines, a research team led by Professor Shingo Iwami of the Nagoya University Graduate School of Science identified trends by using mathematical models with an artificial intelligence component to analyze large amounts of clinical data published prior to his work. That’s how they found that the most successfully spreading SARS-CoV-2 variants had earlier and higher viral load peaks.

That is to say: in the first wave of the epidemic, they had great transmissibility from the moment they entered the human body and stayed in the body longer. However, as the virus evolves from the pre-Alpha variant to the Delta variant, the infection duration of the strain is shorter. Researchers also found that it shortened the virus’s incubation period and increased its spread. Proportion of asymptomatic infections Record its mutations.It’s like it’s done Human beings hide more “secretly”.

The results showed a clear difference.As the virus evolved from the Wuhan strain to the Delta strain, they discovered a Five-fold increase in peak viral load (easier to spread) and the number of days before viral load peaks increased 1.5 times. You may be interested in: Are people who have been infected with COVID-19 more likely to develop Alzheimer’s disease?

Iwami and colleagues believe that changes in human behavior toward viruses aimed at limiting transmission increase selective pressure on the virus. This causes SARS-CoV-2 Mainly spread during asymptomatic and presymptomatic periods, which occurs early in its infection cycle. As a result, viral load peaks are brought forward to this period, allowing for more efficient transmission in the earliest pre-symptomatic stages.

In assessing public health strategies to respond to Covid-19 and any potential disease-causing pathogens future pandemics

, the impact of changes in human behavior on virus evolution patterns needs to be considered. “We hope that immune pressure from vaccines and/or past infection will drive the evolution of SARS-CoV-2,” Iwami revealed. “However, our research found that Human behavior also contributes to virus evolution “In a more sophisticated way, it suggests the need to reassess viral evolution.”

Together, their research suggests that the evolution of new coronavirus strains may arise due to complex interactions between clinical symptoms and human behavior. The team hopes their research will accelerate the establishment of testing protocols for adaptive treatments, as well as effective detection and isolation strategies for the virus in the future.