New Year’s Eve is synonymous with parties, mass gatherings, kisses and hugs over grapes, all in closed spaces with no ventilation. This means an ideal breeding ground for the virus to continue spreading. These Christmas gatherings and crowds are a perfect storm as rates of influenza A and COVID-19 infections soar in communities and people have limited use of protective measures like masks, even for those with symptoms or colds. conditions of.
At the beginning of the new year in 2024, experts predict that the number of infections will continue to grow, which will directly affect the medical pressure on hospitals. If Valencia health centers are already under increasing pressure this week, with hours-long waits in emergency rooms and increasing numbers of people admitted to hospitals with respiratory illnesses, a new increase in cases could cause the first hospital to collapse.
María Ángeles Medina, president of the Valencian Society of Family and Community Medicine (SOVAMFyC), said: “A lot of people are already infected, and a lot of influenza A, respiratory syncytial virus and COVID-19 are circulating among young and old people, who are vulnerable, Compounding their previous conditions,” he said. “If we are already under great pressure in the grassroots and in hospitals, the pressure will be even greater. With the predictable and logical situation at the end of the year, it will increase, with meetings, gatherings, coupled with the cold weather, we are in confinement and poor ventilation environment, the perfect storm will come in January,” Medina stressed.
Currently, the severity of cases has not saturated hospitals. There are many infections, but intensive care units are not yet full. Vaccinations targeting vulnerable groups such as the elderly and the immunosuppressed are preventing the problem from getting out of control. But the number of infections in children under four is skyrocketing (incidence is approaching 5,000 cases, the curve is rising across the board), and now that school is not available for the Christmas holidays, many children with colds are staying at home with their grandparents, who are a high-risk group. , this may can cause infections and complications over the next few days.
“Now we must remember the lessons we have learned from this pandemic and we can protect ourselves and our elders with the masks we used during COVID-19. If I go to a health center with symptoms, I will wear a new mask Entering the health center because in the waiting room I was contagious. We have to provide support and protect ourselves because this is the only way to stop the increase in infections,” Medina explained.
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The peak in cases has taken longer this year because the fall was warmer and the colder weather that causes more spread of the virus arrived later. In 2022, the incidence of respiratory infections (ARI) reached 1,404 cases per 100,000 inhabitants between November 28 and December 4, a figure that was repeated in the period from December 12 to 18, but with the curve at Christmas last year has declined.
However, the peak of infections in 2023 came in full force mid-Christmas, as family gatherings and crowds gathered in shopping malls and supermarkets, all of which were closed and the virus spread rapidly. That is, on the same day, there are more infections now than there were last year, especially now that the number of infections is increasing across the board, while there was a decrease last Christmas.
Furthermore, last year’s curve was more stable, with the sharp increases and decreases in infections from one week to the next less sudden. The growth now is exponential. Cases of acute respiratory infections in the community increased from 811 on December 10 to 1,116 in just seven days, and to 1,329 on Christmas Eve. If this increase continues, and experts warn it will, next week it could surpass the highest figure in more than a year, which was the 1,483 cases registered in the region between February 6 and 12, 2023.
Common sense, don’t collapse
For the SOVAMFyC president, people must be “civic-minded” and, in addition to protecting themselves from any symptoms, should act based on common sense in the event of contagion to avoid overcrowding in health centers. “If there are no alarm symptoms, there is no need to go to the health center, you can take anti-flu medicines at home and recover, then go to the pharmacy to buy medicines that will relieve the symptoms, because there is no other solution if you go to the emergency room where you collapse, for those who do People who need it. On the other hand, if you have a weird cough, chest pain, prolonged fever, something more serious, you should see a doctor,” Medina said.
It is worth remembering that cases peaked at 1,883 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in several regions of the Community, including the southern province of Valencia and the northern part of Alicante and Valencia, a figure between those in Spain and It is reflected in red in the Ministry of Health’s acute respiratory infection surveillance system.