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Dollar CCL registered its first loss since the elections

With a blue dollar also falling (it closed at $ 200.50), the so-called exchange rate “Counted with liquid” traded with the most liquid bonds (Bonar 2030) yielded 0.7% to $ 216.74. Therefore, the gap with the official decreased to 115.4%. From 14 N, the CCL registered a jump of almost $ 33 (+ 17.7%).

Meanwhile, the versions of the CCL that are operated with other assets (called “free” before the elections) also traded close to $ 216, which reflects the convergence of prices.

In addition, the MEP dollar contracted 0.5% to $ 204.88, therefore, the spread with the wholesaler, which is regulated by the BCRA, fell to 103.6%. Since the Friday before the elections, the so-called dollar stock market has accumulated a rise of $ 20.90 (+ 11.4%).

The strong rises of both types of changes in recent days were due to the BCRA decision not to participate so actively in the bond market (which in turn accelerated the fall of sovereign securities) to contain financial dollars. Now, many are wondering in the market if that turn was due to the lack of firepower or, as part of the beginning of conversations with the IMF. Perhaps both guesses are valid.

To Ariel Manito, Commercial Manager of PPI, that the “subsidized dollar” has adjusted to market values ​​”is good news,” given that “there are fewer benchmark dollars to think about.” “Although the market is normalizing, it puts more pressure on financial dollars, because it is one less door to get cheaper dollars. This while, in addition, the official dollar is looked at waiting for news. Read, if the crawling peg or if this rate continues so below monthly inflation, “he said.

Now, one question to be answered is where the financial dollar (or stock market) will be in the coming months. “Today, it is even above the informal one and nothing seems to indicate that the gap is going to be reduced, unless there are substantive measures”. Manito asserts.

Meanwhile, market sentiment appears to continue to deteriorate due to the uncertainty about the progress of negotiations with the IMF. “One of the keys will lie in the pace of reduction of the fiscal deficit, which accelerated again in October due to the ´Plan Platita´ (primary spending grew 83% year-on-year in October)”, pointed out from Delphos Investment.

To begin to change the current dynamics, the market expect “tangible progress” in negotiations with the Fund. “It is necessary to have greater certainty in the short term and provide clues about the path of correction of some key prices (official dollar and rates) in 2022 consistent with the reduction of the primary deficit,” added Delphos.

To begin to change the current dynamics, the market expects “tangible advances” in the negotiations with the Fund. “It is necessary to have greater certainty in the short term and provide clues on the path of correction of some key prices (official dollar and tariffs) in 2022 consistent with the reduction of the primary deficit”they added from Delphos.

Official dollar

The saving dollar -which includes 30% of the COUNTRY tax, and a 35% on account of the Income Tax- dropped two cents cents to $ 175.03, Since the The retail dollar fell by one cent to $ 106.08, according to the average of the main banks in the financial system. In turn, the retail value of the US dollar at Banco Nación it rose 25 cents to $ 105.75.

The Central Bank bought about $ 130 million in the day, taking advantage of anticipated sales from exporters on the eve of a US holiday, market sources said. This helped to observe a greater normalization between the supply of foreign exchange in the export sector and the demand, mainly from importers.

In this way, the monetary authority’s sales in the foreign exchange market fell to $ 630 million in November.

The wholesale dollar, meanwhile, amounted five cents to $ 100.62, under the strict regulation of the BCRA, which achieved buy about US $ 130 million in the day (higher daily positive balance since the 4th of this month, when it decided that banks could not buy foreign currency until the end of the month), taking advantage of anticipated sales from exporters on the eve of a US holiday, market sources said. This helped to observe a greater normalization between the supply of foreign exchange in the export sector and the demand, mainly from importers.

In this way, the monetary authority’s sales in the foreign exchange market fell to $ 630 million in November.

“This Thursday’s holiday in the US will surely have an impact on local activity and influenced the export sector to anticipate sales, a factor that surely contributed to the good result obtained by the Central Bank”, remarked an operator.

In this context, the market awaits clues as to how the Government will reduce the high exchange rate gap of over 100%. In this sense, Joaquín Marque, Director of UG Valores, recalled that “historically accelerations in peso devaluations come between the holidays and summer vacations. But the rise in the official dollar must anticipate the harvest to accelerate the sale of cereals and the liquidation of exports ”.

Future dollar

In the ROFEX futures market, The dollar showed disparate behaviors, with rises between the shortest and lowest terms as of February 2022. In this way, the dollar at the end of November operated with a rate of 18.14%, while by the end of the year the rate reached 43.82%. The volume traded was US $ 319 million.

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HELEN HERNANDEZ

Helen Hernandez is our best writer. Helen writes about social news and celebrity gossip. She loves watching movies since childhood. Email: Helen@oicanadian.com Phone : +1 281-333-2229

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