To the regrettable loss of human life and the major blow that will be given to the economy of all mexicans, the crisis of the coronavirus you will also have an impact political and electoral inevitable. From how to handle this pandemic, the leaders of all the political parties and the right thing to do or erratic decisions that you make, it will have a political cost in the form of vows of punishment or recognition of the governed at the ballot box.
We are in the year prior to a strategic choice, above all for the political project of the president Andrés Manuel López Obrador it is played in the elections intermediates of 2021 the majority in the Chamber of Deputies. And today, more than ever, in the midst of a crisis that threatens the governments all over the world with an economic downturn comparable only to that of 1929 and that will show the effectiveness and the ability —or the inefficiency and inability of the leaders and rulers to protect and rescue its citizens from the effects of this pandemic, the political scenarios will also change when you pass this emergency.
Like the rest of the world, Mexico will not be exempt from these social and political phenomena that will cause the coronavirus. Going to be in our country a breeding ground of election, from the crossing dismal between economic crisis to health crisis. The result of waves of unemployed by the closure of businesses, public health systems in crisis, loss of loved ones, and the evaluation inevitable of how each authority was faced with the crisis and helped or not their citizens will constitute such a breeding ground, and how it is expressed politically at the time of the polls will depend on the direction and the political future of the country.
By now, even in the midst of the contingency, the politicians will not stop them from doing calculations and thinking in the elections. President López Obrador, for example, to define the way in which your government will respond to this emergency and the supports which will accord with public resources, decided to go clearly and decidedly by its social base and electoral more loyal: the beneficiaries of its social programs and welfare.
Older adults, young people without employment, single mothers, farmers, and families in poverty, are the ones that the president is going to support in this emergency, together with the owners of changarros and family businesses, most of them in the informality. That’s why the middle class and small and medium-sized entrepreneurs, not entered on the support of the government, because they are not seen as voters safe and rather they are considered “opponents” and critics of the project of the 4Tdespite that, by 2018, the voting middle-classy was decisive for the triumph presidential AMLO.
There are 22 million beneficiaries of social programs, the figure that today is handled in National Palace and to the betting to win the elections of 2021. This structure is thought to mobilize electorally from 266 regional areas (divided from the 300 electoral districts) and 10 thousand committees of bases. Sources within the government claim that the president had set a goal of 30 million beneficiaries by 2021, but problems of operation and even some cases of corruption that were detected in the management of social supports was prevented from getting to the goal, and even —according to the same sources— up to cost him the control of that political structure, the Federal Programs coordinator, Gabriel García Hernández.
The only problem, nothing less, that have the calculations be happy you do in the Palace, is that to lose those votes and aterrizarlos in the polls in 2021 will need a national party and strong that it does not have today the president with Brown. Helps a lot in these moments of López Obrador that today you don’t see a strong opposition or figures or opposition leaders who are emerging as a counterweight.
But also the opponents make their political calculations from which will leave the Covid-19 after his ill-fated step. As before, the health emergency was brewing and negotiating, by 2021, a pole opponent, a “mega-alliance” election between PAN, PRI, MC, AND PRD, to face Brown in the general elections in between, but now, without a doubt, the scenario that will stop the pandemic is going to facilitate and improve the prospects for such an electoral coalition that can represent a real risk for mr. López Obrador and his project at the polls in between.
Leaders of formal opposition parties are the ones who started pushing and trying to negotiate the opposition front, but now also the governors of the opposition will come on the scene and with the support of the states, the issue takes on another dimension. Thing to remember how it was that Enrique Peña Nieto formed his force and his media presidential candidacy from the support of the governors of the PRI who made a common front to support the state and defeat the PAN in 2012.
The calculation of the “mega-alliance” opposition is simple and your strategy going in parts: first to take to Brown the absolute majority in the Chamber of Deputies in 2021, and from there, in 2024 “get AMLO and Morena in the National Palace”. A few months ago, the same opposition leaders saw these goals as “very complicated,” today that the president’s popularity has already dropped to 50% approval and that its decisions and its actions in this pandemic has been so erratic, no longer see it as complicated.
To resume the controversial expression of the president, that this whole terrible crisis of the coronavirus came to him “like a ring on a finger”, as a result of political and electorally after the end of the pandemic will be like that ring powerful novel of J. R. R Tolkien. Where do you move the ring, and who will be your “precious”? How to the index finger of the presidential or toward the big toe of an opposition with unified?
The meeting yesterday of the president with entrepreneurs, after the harsh criticism it unleashed its contingency plan economic, should be interesting. By the level of the characters, it is seen that the president chose representatives cupulares that may help to explain their plans, even when some are not quite to your liking, such as the case of Valentin Diez Morodo, president of the Mexican Business Council of Foreign Trade. The case of Antonio del Valle, as it is already a regular visitor to the National Palace, and should like very much food tabasqueña, because he eats there at least every week. He called attention to the presence of Emilio Azcárraga of Televisa Group, which although it is part of your “Advisory Board” original entrepreneurs, long time not seen in these meetings, and was finally Alejandro Bailleres, son of Alberto Bailleres, and president of Grupo BAL. How they spoke of the emergency and the challenged program supports the president? Sure, but yesterday there were no details, only the comment bare-bones of The Valley: “it was a good meeting, a good dialogue.” The problem with Lopez Obrador and the entrepreneurs is that they have many “good meetings, and much constructive dialogue,” but few effective results and less private investment in the national economy. That is to say that in this administration, as the saying goes: “much noise and few nuts” in the complicated relationship between political power and the economic…Family of Gerardo Ruiz Esparza, the deceased former secretary of Communications and Transportation, we did get this message which we reproduce below: “Mr. Garcia Soto, a very good evening, in his column of today speaks of our family rest in peace. At first I thank staff for their solidarity regarding the death of our beloved Gerard. On the other hand I want to comment on the cerebral infarction. Well it is known to all neurologists that the human brain is today the most unknown scientifically as medicine is concerned. Gerardo did not suffer at all from a single headache, even more symptoms that appeared were entirely normal, not to say lucid. I urge you to post in your column that Gerardo Ruiz Esparza did not suffer at all from any disease linked to the brain. I do not consider nor believe any member of the family (his illness) obey to the subject referred to in your column. At the time you least expect it you may suffer from an aneurysm that may affect the part of the eye or an aneurysm that is more integrated to the interior of the brain and can cause such a spill. A stroke can happen to anyone because it is still today one of the parts of the human body that is unknown not to the 100 not the 90, I dare say at a 60 to 70%, the cure and the medicines in question that there is to treat diseases of the brain”. Until then the communication sent by the family of Ruiz Esparza…The dice sent Straight. You should go up.