Hugo Lopez-Gatell said that the epidemic is 8 times larger, according to estimates from the Secretariat of Health based on the model sentinel.
Mexico.- The Secretariat of Health estimated that has 26 thousand 519 cases of coronavirus within the mexican population, through the model sentinel.
The assistant secretary explained that based on the model, Mexico would have the referral estimated from the 3 thousand 181 confirmed cases. The infections are not registered would not have come to consultation, but are taken into account by the Government of Mexico to the plans of containment.
“I do a multiplication, which allows me to for each confirmed case of Covid how many there are in the population who are not vi. Because it did not come to the consultation and so on. And finally are these, 26 thousand 519 cases. Of the 3 thousand 181 just to inform, there are others that were not for consultation, but these methods allow us to say with reasonable: certainty there are”
Lopez-Gatell said that the epidemic is 8 times larger than the positive cases are counted, based on the estimates, which serve as a sampling of the figure’s released.
Also said that the model used to estimate the number of cases is accurate, since it was endorsed by the World Health Organization, the Pan american Health Organization and the Center for Disease Control of the united States, and it applies not only to Mexico, but that could mean the reality of other nations.
“We recognize explicitly that we have 26 thousand (cases). In any other country that have only the observed cases also corrected by a similar number, 10 or 12 cases not observed by every one. And countries with huge epidemics also would have to multiply these cases by a factor semenante”
For example, he noted that a country with 300 thousand cases observed and tested by the laboratory could have up to 3 million infections.
Each case would mean another 10 or 12 that have not been sampled but considered within the actions of Health, closed Gatell. The 26 thousand 519 cases represent 8.33 cases per capita with contagion corroborated.