After the Wall Street holiday, the indices are trading again today amid more and more warning signs about the danger of the current bubble bursting and with the Fed anticipating that it will be this year when tapering begins. What to expect from the indices?
Carlos Gil. In principle, the American indices continue to advance, the candles are getting smaller – something logical because they have had a very strong advance since the pandemic – and it is natural that there is some weakness. But the indices are clearly bullish. Where can the problems come from? On the one hand, due to the divergence that is being created between the Nasdaq Composite, the Nasdaq 100 and the Philadelphia semiconductor index and, on the other hand, we have the divergences between the S & P500, Nasdaq and the Dow Jones, which shows a lateralization of prices but, for the moment, they are still bullish.
At some point they will have to correct and the fall could come because of some news such as the FED meeting on September 22, especially if they say something about tapering. Most of the market thinks that we will enter stagflation and, if the purchase of bonds is reduced by 120,000 million, the market will suffer.
In the European stock markets we have also had rises and we are in the prelude to the meeting of the ECB. What do we expect from both variables?
Carlos Gil. There will be a meeting on Thursday and it is important for the markets since the Eurozone inflation data has been 3% and this has made the hawks nervous, who are asking for higher rates in order to keep inflation under control. It would not be surprising that people start talking about tapering and that the markets suffer.
Besides the DAX It will be DAX 40 on September 20 and stocks such as Porsche, Puma, Airbus, Zalando will enter and we will see how this affects the index and how it is readjusted.
The current technical situation is bullish but the price is lateralized between the DAX, which does not break the 16,000 and the Eurostoxx, which has shown divergence. As for the Ibex 35, the barrier of 9000 – 9050 points costs a lot to pass. As long as it does not lose 8,783 points, we do not see risk in the index.
Bitcoin has passed the $ 52,000 zone again this week but is now trading below …. What to expect from crypto assets following the FCA warnings about the need to protect small investors from the dangers of investing in cryptocurrencies and associated instruments, in the face of the propaganda made on social networks by the “influencers”?
Carlos Gil. Bitcoin, bottomed at 30,000, from there there was an upward turn, broke the average of 200 and broke levels. Technically it is behaving nobly, it goes to the support zone, it slows down, it goes to resistance, then it slows down, it bounces … It is a progressive movement and it can return to $ 59,500. This is not a recommendation to invest but the perspective from which we view the asset.
Ethereum. It has better technical behavior than Bitcoin. He made a double bottom, from there he went to the resistances and the projection of the double bottom gave him the objective that he fulfilled and, as soon as he has broken it, he leaves projection towards the maximums again. If he breaks them it will go towards $ 4,750. In case it arrives it could form a flysheet.
In the currency market, the euro keeps weakening against the dollar. Is there a possible strategy? .
Carlos Gil. It is difficult to define a strategy for the two very important meetings that we have this week. If the ECB talks about tapering or raising rates, logically the euro would rise until the FED reacts. At the moment, speculating with the euro-dollar is complicated by the two very important meetings that we will have this month.
Where do we currently look for stocks that may have the most potential to go up?
Monica Triana. We see potential in infrastructure-linked securities since the Biden plan was approved. We think they are worth following. ACS: we had set a minimum of 22-20.55 euros and 23.5 euros as resistance, the average of 200 or 25 euros. It is an area that would be difficult to overcome and it is something that investors who have it in their portfolio have to take into account.
As for the banking sector, the value we trust the most is BBVA, it reached highs that are very close to and has exceeded the prepandemic highs. We have an important maximum at 5.58 euros and if it exceeds this level it could go to 6-6.07 as a level that is a more important resistance. Watch that it does not lose 5.54 and in the meantime we trust that if the macro environment does not have a significant drop it can exceed 6.07
Santander Bank. The value is not so strong, it exceeded the important maximum and did not lose the minimum at 2.88 euros. You should NOT lose the maximum that it has cost you to exceed and it could reach 3.76 euros.
Other securities such as Iberdrola, which is not at its best. It has reached the average of 200, has made a bearish engulfing and is retreating. Watch that you do not lose 10,075 -9.95 euros because the falls could be aggravated.
Another value is Inditex. It has had a fall in the summer but is struggling to exceed 30 euros again. If you exceed them, it could go to 31.50 and even 32 euros.
Finally, Telefonica is another of the securities that are traditionally followed in the portfolio. Since the end of 2020 it has been growing, in fact it has risen 76% and has reached the area of 4.34 euros, where it was foreseeable that it would slow down. If it exceeds it, it could go towards 5.70 euros. As control levels: minimum 3.61 euros.
Practical Course on Trading Investment Strategies. Request information without obligation!