The midterm elections, which already have the advance of what happened in the PASO, are a thermometer for any government. But with a deteriorating economy and a policy that is far from going the same way, the situation is transformed into what is seen from day to day. If it has to be defined with one word, that word is “distrust.”
And the distrust is not only in the investors of bonds of the debt that continue to come off the Argentine titles to the fall, situation that increases the country risk. Today the bonds of the restructured debt are worth much less than what was estimated when the debt is swapped.
In addition to the distrustful bondholders, there are the dollar buyers. In reality, with the price of goods in Argentina today, where the value of the square meter remains at the bottom, and where the rates of fixed terms pay a more than seductive return, it seems illogical to dollarize at all costs. However, minority investors continue to bet on the dollar, no matter if it is savings, the blue, or the financial dollar..
The results are in sight. Yesterday the blue set a new record and remained at a weight of $ 200, while the purchase of dollar savings increased 30% in the last month.
The whole movement occurs thinking that an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is not believed and that the Central Bank (BCRA) does not have dollars to face a run.
In the first point, the Minister of Economy, Martn Guzmn, continues negotiating with the IMF. The body itself confirmed the meetings this week. And with respect to the dollar, beyond the convictions of each saver or investor, there are numbers that must at least be taken into account. So far this year, the BCRA has a positive balance in the purchase of dollars that exceeds US $ 6.2 billion. It is true that the BCRA is selling dollars in the first days of November and that it will probably continue to sell for the next 15 days. It is also true that next month the dollars of the fine harvest will begin to arrive, with a wheat with the price through the clouds. According to official calculations between the last month of the year and the first of the next, agriculture will liquidate US $ 3.7 billion, a not inconsiderable figure given the current context. There are more: Tomorrow, US $ 14 million of the World Bank enters the reserves; US $ 201 million from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and US $ 75 million from CAF. In other words, the BCRA will have an additional US $ 300 million in its coffers, which is not much, but given the context they add up.
In any case, the question is why the market continues to distrust. Or perhaps the question is, why in the government itself not everyone thinks relatively similar Distrust is only of the market?