exit of deposits and reserves in red zone

The problem is that, even with all the obstacles to access the official dollar, the little that is sold means a lot for the weakened reserves of the BCRA

The director of one of the main private banks in Argentina cannot hide his concern: for the second day in a row, the branches received hundreds of savers who went to withdraw the dollars from the accounts. The wave of versions of the weekend continued to cause an outflow of deposits from the banks, which a couple of financiers estimated at US $ 200 million a day, but that could easily be more.

Financial entities have enough liquidity to repay every dollar that customers want to withdraw, and they even stocked up with tickets to return and not have any inconvenience.

Financiers are fully aware – perhaps like no one else in the country – that a only stumbleEven if it is a logistics problem, it could cause a disaster and dent the trust of the entity.

Sight evidence: reserves fell this Tuesday nothing less than u $ s489 million. There was no payment of debts. This drop is basically explained by the deposit exit, previously mentioned, the intervention in the exchange market and the decline in gold.

And just as many savers went to the banks to get the money, the entities also detected an increase in the number of customers who bought “savings dollars” through “home banking.”

The amount of dollars sold in the “solidarity” channel is no longer a “macro” problem, as it was before the imposition of the super stocks. Now there are very serious limits to those operations.

The growing sale of “savings” dollars is part of a scenario of greater dollarization

The problem is that, Even with all the obstacles to access the official dollars, the little that is sold means “a lot” for the weakened reserves of the Central Bank.

According to preliminary numbers, November sales would have closed between US $ 165 million and $ 170 million. Against US $ 137 million in October. Last month, some 762,000 people bought dollars in the official market, 15,000 more than in September

The volume of sales of “savings” dollars increased in this second part of the year. As the exchange rate gap also widened again.

Although it is less than the record of US $ 800 million that were sold in August 2020, and that forced to harden the “stocks”, the sales volume of “savings dollars” multiplied by three between May and September, according to official figures.

At banks, the “savings” dollar sells for about $ 175 / $ 176, down from the $ 200 “blue” dollar. This means that a person who yesterday accessed the “savings” dollar can earn around $ 25 per dollar, and make a difference of up to $ 5,000 if he could access the entire quota.

But beyond the profit that a small saver can make in that “roller”, what denotes the strong impulse in sales is the growing dollarization of Argentines, in anticipation of a possible devaluation. A possibility that the Government emphatically rejects.

To get an idea of ​​the evolution of sales in recent months: in May, US $ 49 million had been sold. In June it jumped to $ 82 million. In July and August it was $ 125 million each month. And in September they reached US $ 150 million.

The growing sale of “savings” dollars is part of a scenario of greater dollarization by companies and individual savers.

That is one of the reasons why the BCRA ended November with net sales of foreign currency, for a global amount of US $ 900 million. Only yesterday, Tuesday, the monetary authority was forced to part with u $ s135 million. The reason is simple: without an agreement with the IMF in sight, buying dollars seems like a winning card for investors and companies entering the official market.

Reserves fell this Tuesday no less than US $ 489 million

Argentine assets fall

All this scenario of imbalance and nervousness occurs in a context of falls in the assets Argentines.

Yesterday, Tuesday, the country risk advanced 28 basis points (+ 1.5%) and stands at 1,905 basis points. This is a new high since the 2020 debt restructuring, when the index fell almost 50% to 1,104 points. Since then, it has accumulated an increase of 801 units. In November, the rise totaled 193 points (+ 11.3%).

The dollarizing dynamics I know exacerbated in the last weeks. It did not even cool down after knowing the results of the legislative elections, where it lost in the ruling party.

The dollarization dynamics is reflected in the prices of the “free dollars”. On average, they are already worth $ 215, even above the $ 201.50 of the “blue”, which means that there are companies and investment funds that are dollarized at that price that is high in historical terms.

The market seems to care little about this objective data. Investors and companies are dollarizing because there is no expectation of an improvement on the horizon.

Without an agreement signed with Washington and without any planned course for the medium term -in a context where the Central Bank loses foreign exchange and reserves are at very low levels-, the bet goes on only one side: hedging in hard currency against at a weight that is worth less every day. And with no prospect of getting up.

Sales of hoarding dollars add to an already stressful situation. The dollarization of companies and individuals does not end there. It will also be necessary to pay close attention to the dynamics of imports, which was one of the ways in which the Central Bank lost foreign exchange.

The last adjustments to the “stocksthey don’t seem either reach. The prohibition for Argentines to pay for their trips abroad in installments is a stark example of the suffocating situation of reserves.

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Helen Hernandez is our best writer. Helen writes about social news and celebrity gossip. She loves watching movies since childhood. Email: Phone : +1 281-333-2229

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