In the last week of October and facing the legislative elections that are held in the country on November 12, the dollar continued to rise in all its prices, Mainly in the Cash with Settlement (CCL) implicit in the price of the Global 2030 bond that shot up 5% or $ 10 until reaching $ 207 on Friday. The Central Bank does not intervene in the price of this bond, nor are there limits to the amount of currency that can be traded through it, which means that it is a free quote.
While a few hours from the president’s meeting Alberto Fernandez with the head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, Argentina’s country risk reached a new annual record, reaching 1,712 points.
Currency trading through the stock market has raised the market temperature in recent days, as companies seek alternatives to dollarize.
Market analysts point out that the advance of the free price is driven by the greater pressure in the rest of the parallel exchange rates.
In this context, prices validate the concern of economic agents to maintain their dollarized portfolios, given the fear of a devaluation after the legislative elections of November 14, which was denied on several occasions by the Government and the Central Bank.
“The cash with free settlement shows a gap of more than 100% over the official dollar. Clearly the issue is monetary. If you add between the monetary base, passes and leliqs, you have an amount of pesos above 7 trillion pesos and Central Bank reserves that are permanently drained. In this framework, there are no measures by the Government to stop this situation.“, said to Infobae Alejandro Bianchi, founder of Asesor de Inversiones.
For its part, in the informal segment, the so-called “blue” dollar registered a 50-cent drop yesterday, to $ 197.50 after reaching a historical record the day before when it reached $ 198 per unit. In the week, this price rose 1.3% or $ 2.50, while in the last 30 days it increased $ 10.50.
For the economist Gustavo Ber, from the homonymous study, there is “a climate of mistrust that does not give respite to the dollarization process, also fueled by a mountain of pesos that acts as fuel”.
The prices validate the concern of economic agents to maintain their dollarized portfolios, given the fear of a devaluation after the legislative elections of November 14, which was denied on several occasions by the Government
Likewise, the price of the retail dollar closed at $ 105.22 and in the last five wheels it accumulated a rise of 0.3% or 33 cents. In this case, it must be considered that it is a price on which the exchange rate weighs and that it is controlled by the BCRA.
In the stock market, the dollar counted with settlement (CCL) implicit in the Bonar 2030, which investors also use to buy and sell dollars, advanced 0.4% to $ 179.81 and in the last five wheels accumulated a decrease of $ 1.65. While the MEP fell 29 cents today to $ 179.71 and accumulated a fall of seven cents for the week.
“The rise in free financials makes the subsidized financial dollar even more attractive and until a few weeks ago the Central Bank lost foreign exchange at a strong rate to contain the market that was tried to segment“, said to Infobae Juan Pablo Albornoz, an economist at Ecolatina.
“Given the shortage of reserves, during the first two weeks of this month it opted to let the regulated CCL and MEP run to save foreign exchange. Given the acceleration, in the last week the BCAR again intervened in these dollars to keep them below $ 180 ″, he remarked.
And he added that “the dollar and the gap are the sounding board of the Argentine economy, and today in the market there is uncertainty regarding macroeconomic fundamentals, which is reflected in exchange rate pressures”.
In the informal segment, the so-called “blue” dollar registered a rise of 1.3% or $ 2.50 during the week, while in the last 30 days it increased by $ 10.50
Meanwhile, in the wholesale segment, the US currency gained three cents and ended at $ 99.72, and during the month it rose 98 cents, which represented an increase of 0.99%. While in the week the rise is 28 cents.
A) Yes, the dollar with the surcharge of 30% -considered in the PAIS tax- and with the advance on account of the Income Tax of 35% on the purchase of foreign currency, the average value was $ 173.25, so in the week accumulated a rise of 41 cents.
In another order, the Central Bank ended the day with a negative balance of around 290 million dollars, the highest in the presidency of Alberto Fernández.
“The accumulated in October exceeded USD 220 million and remained the best October in recent years,” said Gustavo Quintana, analyst at PR Corredores de Cambio.
The volume traded in the cash segment was USD 584 million, in the futures sector of the Open Electronic Market (MAE) there were operations for 351 million dollars and in the Rofex futures market USD 1,856 million were traded.
A few hours after President Alberto Fernández meets with the head of the IMF, Argentina’s country risk today reached a new annual record, reaching 1,712 points.
Thus, in the week it accumulates an increase of 43 basis points and is at the highest value since the debt restructuring.
The index prepared by the JP Morgan bank rises almost 25% in the year and 6.2% in the month, which reflects the distrust in the repayment of sovereign debt securities and the fall in the price of certain key bonds.
In the context of economic uncertainty and stories about growing disagreements in the ruling alliance on what to do with the debt, investors’ fears are mounting. Of particular concern is the strong monetary issue and the possibility that the peso will continue to depreciate.
“The weakness of the bonds spreads, this time through average decreases of 0.7% in their prices in dollars among the main references, before which the country risk already exceeds 1,700 basis points, the maximum post-restructuring level, and this reflects the marked apathy and caution on the part of investors due to future credit concerns”, Analyzed Ber.
The index prepared by the JP Morgan bank rises almost 25% in the year and 6.2% in the month, which reflects the distrust in the repayment of sovereign debt securities and the fall in the price of certain key bonds
Analysts attributed the rise to the twists and turns in negotiations with the IMF. In addition, confusion was generated by the warning issued by the President in an act of Kirchnerism, in which he clarified that Argentina “will not pay the debt on its knees.”
If there is no agreement with the IMF, Argentina will not be able to face the huge debt maturities expected for 2022. In this context, the credit agency said it expects an economic plan that allows the country to be sustainable in order to emerge from the economic crisis in a sustained manner.
More alarms sounded among bondholders after the former head of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department Alexander Werner He estimated that Argentina will not pay that body. Werner argued that an agreement between both parties will only be a “temporary band-aid to delay the bank run for four months.”
“I think that the situation in Argentina is a bit invariable to an IMF program. Argentina is not going to pay the IMF ”, he warned.