Hezbollah attacks could lead to war in Lebanon

The ministerial committee appointed by the extraordinary joint Arab-Islamic summit continues its tour of the capitals of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council to discuss ways to stop the war launched by Israel against the Gaza Strip.

On Wednesday afternoon, the Elysée reported that President Emmanuel Macron will receive members of the committee, made up of the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, the Palestinian Authority, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey, as well as the secretary general of the Elysée. the Arab League. The committee is scheduled to visit London and Paris on Wednesday.

It is not known whether the committee will travel to Washington to discuss the dossier of the war that began on the 7th of last month with American officials.

The delegation’s visit to Paris follows the notable development represented by the achievement, after interesting contacts and mediations in which Egypt and Qatar participated in coordination with the United States of America and other active subjects, an agreement for a limited and gradual exchange of fifty hostages in the hands of Hamas in exchange for the release of 150 Palestinian prisoners and minors and a commitment to a four-member truce, days which could be extended if accompanied by the release of further hostages, as well as the strengthening of the provision of humanitarian aid through the Rafah crossing in the Gaza Strip. Elysée sources reported that Macron will discuss with the members of the joint committee “the situation in the Middle East”, without going into further details.

While awaiting the start of the truce and examining the extent to which the Palestinian and Israeli parties respect its terms, European diplomatic sources in Paris with whom Asharq Al-Awsat spoke raised an important question regarding the period following the first truce, which occurred after 46 days of Israeli bombing of various types (air, land and sea). ). There are fears that the four-day truce will simply be a temporary cessation of hostilities, after which things will go back to business as usual in terms of military escalation, meaning more casualties, destruction and displacement.

Given statements by Israeli leaders that Israeli army operations will resume after the truce and “with greater force,” and Hamas officials’ assertion that “the finger is on the trigger,” the fear is of further escalation.

These sources believe that Israel “has not, to date, achieved the main objective it set for its war in Gaza, namely to eradicate (Hamas),” which means it may be intent on invading the center and south of the country. Gaza Strip. , as happened in the north.

The second consideration is that the Israeli army believes that it is today “in a position of strength” and therefore wants to take advantage of this position, especially since it is still armed with the main pretext provided to it by “Hamas”. that is, invading the Gaza Strip, killing hundreds of Israelis and foreigners, and holding fewer than 250 hostages.

The third consideration, according to the sources cited, is that Israel still believes it enjoys the support, protection and understanding of the United States of America and many Western countries, and therefore today has an opportunity that it does not want to waste, especially since the popular mood even within Western countries has begun to lean in favor of the Palestinians, which makes it necessary to accelerate the achievement of the set objectives.

In recent days Macron and the French Foreign and Defense ministers have confirmed that Paris wants a “humanitarian truce that could lead to a ceasefire”. Therefore, the planned truce gives the French president the opportunity to discuss with the ministers of the joint committee what needs to be done to reach a ceasefire.

As for the other topic that should be on the table for discussion between the two parties, it is undoubtedly the return of discussions on activating the political path to reach a two-state solution. The sources mentioned above fear that this request will be gradually withdrawn and we will return to the situation of “crisis management” instead of finding solutions to it.

It should be noted that there is almost an international consensus that the two-state solution is the only one capable of ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But there are many obstacles to achieving it, not least the availability of real international will and the desire to work seriously to end the conflict. While waiting for the start of serious research and to know whether the United States of America, which in a few months will be immersed in the campaign for the presidential elections, will be determined to push for a political solution, it is necessary to resolve the previous urgent questions, in particular fate of the hostages and prisoners and enhance humanitarian access to the Strip, to avoid a major crisis, then rebuilding what was destroyed by the Israeli bombings and reviewing the scenarios available for its management and the future role of the Palestinian Authority .

It seems clear that all these issues will not find adequate answers without reaching a ceasefire, which is the only natural way to complete these phases. Will it be achieved or will the four-day truce just be a “breathing space” before the war returns to what it was before the truce?