The liquid reserves of the Central Bank this week were one step away from drilling US $ 800 million, after having to sell some US $ 750 million so far in November, according to private calculations.
The BCRA’s net reserves stood at US $ 6,540 million, including gold holdings (US $ 3,697 million) and a balance of the SDRs (drawing rights) sent this year by the IMF, of US $ 2,033 million. .
The data were released by the Economic and Social Reality Study Group (Geres), and partly explain the strong negative reaction that the market maintained this week.
The Central Bank reported on Friday international reserves of US $ 42,273 million, but they include deposits from savers and other assets that, in theory, the monetary authority cannot get hold of.
The weakening of the level of reserves deepens even more if one takes into account that in December Argentina must make a payment of US $ 1.9 billion to the IMF.
Faced with this deterioration, the BCRA stopped intervening in the financial dollar market, which explained that for the first time the price of cash with settlement exceeded that of blue.
The interventions at a loss in the market that the BCRA made before the legislative elections, deepened the distrust of investors.
Added to this are the growing doubts among analysts about the possibility of reaching an agreement with the IMF.
In this scenario, the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, flatly rejected a devaluation that, for the market, is getting closer and closer.
The BCRA closed the week after the elections with a loss of another US $ 60 million of its reserves on Friday in interventions on the dollar spot market.
During the week it accumulated a loss of US $ 120 million and just over US $ 750 million so far this month.
The market is increasingly concentrating its attention on the level of liquid reserves of the BCRA, a figure that the monetary authority keeps completely secret.
Operators of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange indicated that the Government has pending to show a plan to reduce imbalances, because otherwise mistrust will continue.
They also explained that this plan exceeds an agreement with the IMF, and should include a decreasing path of the fiscal deficit, reduction of the exchange rate gap, incentives for foreign investment and removal of subsidies on the economy.
There is concern, too, because inflationary inertia remains beyond the announcements of price freezes.
In November, analysts expect inflation to be above 3% again.
In addition, the year is expected to close with an escalation of more than 50% in the price index.
This projection will have a very strong impact on the cost of living in 2022.
The consulting firm LCG warned that in this scenario, the recovery of the economy expected to be 9% this year, will have very little chance of staying even at half that level in the next.
“The growing inflationary inertia is something very risky for an economy that accumulates fiscal, monetary and relative price imbalances,” he said.
The country risk is located in the area of 1,750 points, which reflects the distrust of the debt bonds and the repayment capacity that the country has.
While inflation is heading for the 50% annual zone, the dollar only rose 20%, which is also a reason for questioning by economic analysts.
Before being Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán always warned about the enormous damages that letting the dollar lag behind has for the economy.
Now, most economic and financial analysts are reminding him of those words he used to say when he was not yet a civil servant. (NA)