Yesterday a new trend began in the market and this Wednesday there was movement in the different prices. What city analysts say
Today, the different dollar markets were very moved, especially with regard to the blue, which had been somewhat relegated at $ 199 and was positioned again above $ 200 (at $ 201.5 to be more precise) and at Cash With Settlement, which jumped from $ 189 to $ 208 in a single day. Meanwhile, the MEP advanced a peso to $ 200.
In the meantime, SENEBI, which is the CCL that operates in the wholesale market, was trading last week at $ 216 and this Monday began to fall at $ 208, although between yesterday and today it recovered its price somewhat, and this Wednesday it was at a value close to $ 214. This was revealed to iProfessional Leonardo Svirsky, Sales and Trading of BullMarket Brokers, who says that this market “continues to operate normally, but when the intervention in AL30 of the BCRA was removed, all the dollar markets were accommodated and prices begin to equalize”.
The market view is unanimous that everything seems to indicate that it is a rearrangement after yesterday’s rise, which was generated by the non-intervention of the Central Bank, which resulted in a jump of $ 10 in the MEP and of about $ 5 in the Cash With Settlement (CCL).
This is confirmed by Gustavo Quintana, from PR Operadores de Cambio, who maintains that “these are days of market readjustment” because alternative dollars, which now move without official interference, tend to seek a level consistent with supply and demand in the market.
the different types of exchange are in a process of accommodation.
They were paired with the blue
“Financial dollars have been rearranged and matched with the blue since the BCRA withdrew its intervention to stop losing reserves. That shows that the real gap with the official was 100% as the blue showed until last week“, says, in the same sense, the chief economist of the consulting firm Invecq, Matías Sturt.
This occurs in a context in which, after the electoral period and on the eve of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Central Bank tries to take care of the Bookings. Along these lines, he closed one of the taps through which he was losing dollars.
It happens that, as explained by Juan Pablo Albornoz, an economist at Ecolatina, having the financial dollar regulated substantially below the free ones implied an increasing cost for the Central Bank, which responded with foreign exchange and regulations.
However, he comments that, in addition to doing this to stop losing dollars, the BCRA he also did it to cut through the “gap of the gap”. This implies that you have a problem: these implicit MEPs and CCLs in Bonares are impossible to arbitrate against other bonds or market exchange rates because of the corset of restrictions.
“Arbitrage is necessary because when one exchange rate is much more expensive or cheaper than the rest, it is a sell or buy signal respectively. This allows you not to have a giant range of quotes, that the dispersion is not so high and that it depends mainly on how liquid or illiquid the asset is “, details the economist. And it explains that, by not being able to arbitrate them, the MEP and CCL implicit in the AL30 (the most liquid bond in the market), which were previously subsidized, can now take on their own dynamics and not necessarily converge with the rest.
Thus, Albornoz points out that “each regulation further segmented the MEP and CCL of the AL30 with respect to the rest and, paradoxically, this made it even more attractive, like any careful price, for example, when buying from a supermarket.”
The BCRA stopped intervening in financial dollars to preserve reserves.
A well-known movie
Consequently, it considers that “What is happening with the MEP and the CCL is a well-known movie: as with any price control, once the price freeze period is over, the previously artificial one comes to the fore”. And, on this point, he agrees with his colleagues when he points out that we are seeing that these exchange rates are in the process of being readjusted with respect to the rest of those negotiated in the market.
In this scenario, the economist of Epyca Consultores, Joel Lupieri, affirms that “it is evident that the electoral result does not seem to have traced a clear path in economic matters“and states that”the dollar is still the classic bet of the bulk of the public“.
However, it does not rule out that part of the MEP jump is due not only to the coverage of locals (which do not have access to foreign accounts) but to a redirection of demand from the blue to the stock market, which was subsidized with the state interventions.
Looking to the future, Quintana anticipates that “To know at what level the market will find a certain equilibrium, you have to wait a few days and also see if Sunday’s results generate any change in the economic orientation“.
Along the same lines, Sturt points out that what is going to happen from now on depends on what the Government does. And he warns in this regard that, if a serious and credible agreement is not reached, which gives a horizon that the fiscal and monetary imbalances will be corrected quickly, the parallel dollars will continue to rise and at some point there will be a devaluation of the official .
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