Despite the scenarios advanced for “post-war Gaza,” the picture is still “bleak and negative” regarding who will govern this inflamed and densely populated area, according to an analysis that indicates that Hamas itself “may not seem interested” in the return to govern Gaza.
The analysis, published by the American magazine “Foreign Affairs”, states that it is difficult to implement the scenarios that some are talking about, for reasons linked to a reality imposed on the ground, pointing to a notable part linked to the Hamas movement, and that, on the contrary, “it does not seem important to return to govern Gaza”, since “he wants to manage matters from behind the scenes, while maintaining his military force and infrastructure”.
In more than one report, Western media reviewed the possibilities for a “post-war Gaza,” the most prominent of which was the deployment of Arab forces to the besieged Strip, in addition to UN forces, and other options related to by the Palestinian Authority taking over the reins of the administration or for Israel to assume full responsibility for security matters, as announced by President and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
However, Joost Hiltermann, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the International Crisis Group, says in analysis written for Foreign Affairs magazine that there are no easy solutions at hand, nor for Israel, which continues its war , nor for the United States of America, which is being proposed today. The first and last question is: what is the plan for Gaza for the day after the end of the war?
Is Hamas worried?
From the beginning of the war to today, a military scenario has loomed over Hamas, both in terms of the decisions it takes and the movements it announces, most of which are linked to the camp, as it announces day after day against the Israeli army. vehicles and tanks in the Gaza Strip.
The movement has rarely addressed its management paths in the sector, in the last days of the war, or when the question arose in post-war scenarios, in which no name was reserved for the movement, while it gave options on the party that would be the its alternative.
For the movement’s part, Palestinian writer and political analyst Ibrahim Al-Madhoun believes that Hamas “is now interested in managing the battle, countering Israeli aggression and trying to prevent the occupation from controlling Gaza and achieving its goals of displacing the Palestinian people.”
Therefore “it postpones talking and discussing what will happen after the aggression and after the war”.
Al-Madhoun told the Al-Hurra website: “Hamas is prepared for all scenarios and never proposes to be excluded from any future agreements.”
“It is open and has complete flexibility with everyone so as to serve the interests of the Palestinian people and the people of the Gaza Strip,” and its administrative and governmental apparatus is still working dynamically and effectively and in accordance with the emergency system , according to Al-Madhoun.
Despite the lack of stability, Al-Madhoun adds that “the movement is capable of management and is difficult to ignore in the Gaza Strip.”
But Dr. Amer Al-Sabaila, a university professor and geopolitical analyst, believes that Hamas “undoubtedly will not be able to manage the Gaza Strip at this time.”
In an interview with the Al-Hurra website, Al-Sabaila states: “We are talking about a war that has destroyed the Gaza Strip, both in terms of infrastructure and in terms of humanitarian conditions… Without international acceptance, no one can live again.” administer Gaza.”
“We are also talking about a reconstruction project and a humanitarian aid project, and therefore the conversation about civil administrations and the Israeli security role in the Strip began early. This explains the reality,” according to Al-Sabaila.
Al-Sabaila is referring to the initiative announced by Hamas a month ago, “as if it realizes that the idea of managing Gaza is no longer valid,” according to researcher Al-Sabaila.
What is the initiative?
On November 2, the movement presented to the mediators, according to the head of the political office, Ismail Haniyeh, “a global vision that includes the opening of the political path for the creation of an independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital and the right to ‘self-independence’. determination.”
Haniyeh said in a televised speech published at the time: “The vision presented by the movement includes a prisoner exchange agreement, the opening of border crossings and a ceasefire.”
Researcher Al-Sabaila explains: “It is clear that Hamas is trying to be a representative of the Palestinian people, which is reflected in the desire to whitewash prisons and agreements that go further to include all Palestinians.”
Al-Sabaila adds: “I think he will try to be part of the political scene, but in terms of administration he may not be able to do so.”
The writer Al-Madhoun believes that “if Israel remains the occupying force in Gaza, Hamas will continue to face and resist it.”
“The movement considers itself part of a national liberation movement project, and one of its priorities is not power, but one of its priorities is that people live in freedom and dignity and that the political situation is organized in accordance with the ‘entire Palestinian national project,” according to Al-Madhoun.
Although Al-Madhoun believes that it is too early to talk about “post-war Gaza,” he believes that “Hamas is still holding out until this moment and is in control, is in command and control, and is able to survive and continue to different circumstances and scenarios”.
But former Pentagon official David De Roche sees the movement scene in Gaza differently than mentioned above.
He told the Al-Hurra website: “No Iranian agent has ever shown any interest in achieving stability or governing the region he controls other than as a means to profit.”
On the question of whether Hamas is still trying to rule Gaza, Des Roches points out that “the movement’s leaders say that taking care of civilians is the mission of the United Nations and that they are only interested in the fight.”
Therefore, “it will continue after the war as an insurgent force and nothing else,” predicts the former US Department of Defense official.
“The Authority is ready and Netanyahu: No”.
In the latest positions related to Gaza after the war, the official spokesperson of the Palestinian presidency, Nabil Abu Rudeina, confirmed on Wednesday the Palestinian Authority’s willingness to assume responsibility in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank and East Jerusalem, in accordance with the established provided for by the Oslo Accords.
In statements made to Al-Hurra TV, Abu Rudiniyah underlined that for 30 years the Palestinian Authority has provided for all the needs of Gaza, including electricity, water, gas, healthcare and education. There are 88,000 employees, both active and retired, who receive their pensions from the Palestinian Authority budget.
He added: “We are ready to assume our responsibilities in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem, as agreed in Oslo and in accordance with international legitimacy.”
But these statements came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that “the Palestinian Authority is not qualified in its current form” to govern Gaza.
Netanyahu accused Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas of failing to condemn the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7 and said that “some of Abbas’ senior ministers celebrated the attack.”
The current Palestinian situation does not speak of alternatives, but rather of participation and integration, as explained by Al-Madhoun, who says: “Hamas is ready to be open to all factions and has relations with everyone.”
He added: “Therefore, there is no alternative to the Hamas movement except Hamas, no alternative to Fatah except Fatah, and no alternative to jihad except jihad,” stressing that “the movement has fought several previous wars and has maintained its management after they were completed.” .”
Although the current war looks different, Al-Madhoun believes that “Hamas has the ability to apply pressure in the most serious crises and has the ability to restore administrative order and vitality for several reasons, since it is not limited only to Gaza, but rather to its leaders.” they are distributed in the West Bank, abroad and in the Palestinian diaspora.”
On Friday, the Israeli military estimated it had killed about a thousand Hamas militants, a small fraction of the more than 30,000-strong force it said was part of the movement before the war.
The current phase of the Israeli military operation in northern Gaza is expected to continue for weeks before the Israeli military heads south, according to a US intelligence assessment provided to Wall Street by an American official.
Attention is currently on the “truce” that will come into force on Thursday and whether it will be extended gradually or end on the fifth day as planned.