Israel moves to the second phase of the war: the invasion of southern Gaza

Although the Israeli government has not yet decided whether to begin the next phase of the war in the Gaza Strip, the Israeli military has begun to indicate the imminent expansion of its ground operations southward.

The focus of the military campaign has shifted to the south, where Israel is likely to face its most difficult phase of the six-week war as it seeks to crush Hamas and recapture prisoners amid a deepening humanitarian crisis.

Israeli forces have largely succeeded in controlling northern Gaza but have only partially destroyed Hamas’ military capabilities and have not captured or killed many of its top leaders, senior Israeli officials and analysts say, quoted by the Wall Street Journal.

In turn, Israeli leaders have indicated a southward shift in recent days, indicating that many Hamas fighters have fled there as Israeli forces entered, and that some leaders may be hiding in densely populated cities, or in underground tunnels, strikes have seen fewer strikes in the air than in Gaza City in the north.

Hamas will almost certainly prove a more determined adversary in the south, where fighters will have no choice but to fight.

Rafah bombing in the southern Gaza Strip (AFP)

Prisoners’ charter

In turn, former Israeli officials have said that prisoners are the best means of pressure available to Hamas leaders to survive in light of Israel’s move southward as the militants try to halt the fighting, at least temporarily.

Israeli officials and leaders have also indicated that Israel’s plan to attack Hamas in the south will likely resemble its advance in the north, but the issue will be complicated due to the large numbers of civilians now crowded into the region.

In parallel, American officials revealed they are urging Israel to delay its growing operations in the south until it considers plans to protect civilians who have fled there in large numbers to escape fighting in the north.

Israeli soldiers (AFP)

Closure of the border with Egypt

Instead, Israeli officials believe they have no choice but to invade southern and central Gaza to achieve the Israeli government’s goal of removing Hamas from power in response to the October 7 cross-border attack that Israel says killed more than 1,200 people and captured about 240 others.

According to Israeli analysts and security officials, one of Israel’s objectives in the south will be to close the border with Egypt, including the alleged tunnels underneath, to prevent Hamas from introducing more weapons to prolong the fighting and to prevent its leaders to flee Gaza. .

In turn, Miri Eisin, former deputy head of combat intelligence of the Israeli army, said: “The main leaders of Hamas have never sat in the north.” He added that “they will remain close to their homes, since most of them live in the center and south of the Strip.”

Additionally, Israel’s top targets include Hamas’ top leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, as well as Hamas military commander Muhammad Deif, whom Israel accused of coordinating the October 7 attacks.

Israeli forces find Hamas tunnel (Reuters)

Aerial bombing and then land entry

Israeli warplanes are likely to intensify bombing of Khan Yunis and Rafah, densely populated urban areas in the south believed to be riddled with Hamas tunnels, like Gaza City in the north.

Ground forces are also likely to advance from multiple directions, isolating Hamas strongholds and slowly clearing them of fighters on the ground.

Eyal Benko, a retired Israeli military officer and former intelligence official, explained that “Hamas fighters will move slowly” and indicated that the Israeli attack will begin with “a bombardment from the air, then from the sea and from land , then the intervention of infantry and tanks.”

Commanders say Israeli forces have stayed away from tunnels in the north, choosing to blow up entrances in many cases when they find them to prevent Hamas from using them for ambushes.

Israeli tank (AFP)

The tunnel dilemma

But as the search for prisoners continues in the South, identifying tunnels that can be destroyed without exposing prisoners to danger may be increasingly difficult.

For his part, John Spencer, a retired U.S. Army officer and head of urban warfare studies at the U.S. Military Academy, said “some challenges will remain the same in the South.”

He continued: “But one difference is that they sent everyone there, so the situation in separating civilians from Hamas is more difficult.” He described the issue as “a huge spaghetti of strategic tactical implementation.”

The current phase of the Israeli military operation in northern Gaza is expected to continue for weeks before the Israeli military heads south, according to an American intelligence assessment described by an American official to the Wall Street Journal.

While Israel has not set a timetable on how to proceed with the attack.

Read also