Lakers and LeBron James are taking on Father Time (Video)

Each week during the 2023-24 NBA season, we’ll take a deeper look at some of the league’s biggest storylines, trying to determine whether these trends are based more on fact or future fiction.

This week’s topic: Lakers are doing something right under LeBron James

It’s no secret that Los Angeles Lakers general manager Rob Pelinka, head coach Dalvin Hamm and superstar LeBron James have come to an agreement on the 38-year-old’s playing time limit in his 21st season.

In fact, Pelinka said every move since the February trade deadline has been made with that in mind.

“This is all done knowing that LeBron is entering his 21st year,” the executive said during a media interview in late September. “We have to work with him and help him get all the way to the end because that’s his goal. Adding depth, versatility, shooting, all those things are going to help us achieve that.”

In retrospect, perhaps we should have been more concerned if James’ goal was to simply end the season. In fact, we should definitely be worried about the Lakers abandoning their entire plan after one game.

James played 29 minutes in a 119-107 loss to the defending champion Denver Nuggets in the opener, and it was clear that every minute he played was integral to the team’s success. The Lakers are seven points ahead of the Nuggets when James is on the court and 19 points ahead in 19 minutes on the bench. It’s a testament to James’ greatness that he’s had such a unique impact on the outcome of his career so far.

After losing to Denver, Ham revealed “Most likely, yes“, the Lakers will limit James to close to 30 minutes per game, and he averaged a team-leading 35.5 minutes per game last season, the veteran also confirmed this.

“That’s the system that’s in place and I’m going to follow it,” James said.

“He gets so caught up in the emotion of the game that you tend to forget you want to play for so long,” Hamm said at the start of his second season at the helm, “but in order for him to be as effective as possible , we have to pay attention to the output per minute and how long he stretches.”

James has averaged 37.3 minutes in four games since making his statement, including 42 minutes in overtime Wednesday night against the rival Los Angeles Clippers. Only six players in the entire NBA have played more minutes than James through five games, and two of them are Lakers veterans Anthony Davis and D’Angelo Russell, and their workloads are equally worrisome for entirely different reasons. different.

The Lakers are chasing early wins, which conflicts with their plans for James. In Game 2 against the Phoenix Suns, he played all 12 minutes in the fourth quarter. James came out in the final quarter of Sunday’s game against the Sacramento Kings as the Lakers’ five-point lead evaporated in just a minute, and naturally, he played the entirety of the team’s 132-127 loss to the Kings. of the entire overtime period. On the second night of a back-to-back on Monday, he played 33 minutes against the Orlando Magic, scoring a game-winning three-pointer.James took a seat have Wednesday’s fourth quarter and then again the entire overtime period in a win over the Clippers.

The team’s net rating is +8.7 when James is on the court and -23.2 when he is off the court – a 31.9-point difference per 100 possessions, giving the team a negative point differential. He played 52 of the 60 minutes in the fourth quarter, and the difference was even more pronounced with or without James.

If Ham sticks to James’ 30-minute limit, the Lakers will likely go 0-5. Again, that’s pretty impressive for a player who’s about to turn 39 and could become the NBA’s all-time leader in games played and minutes this season. Again, we should be worried about the Lakers relying on him so much.

He has missed at least 27 games, or one-third of 82 games, in four of the past five seasons. The 80 games he has missed over the past three years are nine more than he missed in his previous 15 seasons combined. These are signs of basketball death that the Lakers are forced to confront. James has suffered injuries to both of his feet over the past two offseasons, including a torn tendon in his right foot that had multiple doctors recommending surgery in March. There was no indication that he had undergone the procedure.

James is working hard to control his playing time. According to NBA tracking data, his average defensive speed is the slowest of any regular player in the league. He had it all but didn’t give up chasing offensive rebounds, and his three-point shooting percentage was the second-highest of his career.

The Lakers are not far behind. They are the slowest team in the league — 29th on offense and 30th on defense — and have the second-worst three-point shooting percentage. No one scores fewer second-chance points, and they rank 24th in second-chance points allowed — 8.4 points per game behind only the Houston Rockets. They pass the ball with less regularity (267.8 passes per game) than all but seven teams.

So much for the cavalry coming to relieve James of his responsibilities. Davis got off to a great start, averaging a record of 26-13-3, averaging 4.4 steals and blocks per game, and shooting 53/43/85 from the field, which kept the Lakers in the middle of the season. The scrimmage situation is even more disturbing because he has also missed 26 or more games in four of the last five seasons. Nothing could be more helpful to the Lakers.

Austin Reeves is off to a terrible start to the season, shooting 34.5% from the field, 21.1% from distance, and averaging almost as many turnovers (2.8) and assists (3.4) per game. According to Cleaning the Glass, defenses drop 27.3 points per 100 meaningful possessions when Reeves is on the court. (Maybe Pelinka and Ham should calm down and compare Reeves to multiple Hall of Famers this summer.)

There’s a lot of Russell, Christian Wood and Cam Reddish — a combined 74.6 minutes per game, to be exact — who hasn’t been a winning formula in their previous 14 games. . With James sluggish on defense, the Lakers asked Davis to go all out and become a mid-level defender again.

Hachimura signed a three-year, $51 million contract extension over the summer, while newcomer Jaxon Hayes has stepped into the minor role, putting extra pressure on the frontcourt. The Lakers have touted their depth throughout training camp, but their depth consists of players whose previous teams don’t regret leaving.

Gabe Vincent, Jared Vanderbilt, Rui Hachimura and rookie Jalen Hood-Schifino have all suffered minor injuries. The Lakers should hope to find a more trustworthy rotation that, combined with their return of health (Vincent and Vanderbilt are getting minutes from Russell, Wood and Reddish, will especially help the defense), They have higher expectations for Reeves and more confidence in the No. 2 pick — first-year guard Max Christie.

Of course, they adjust the rotation until they find the groove. A potential lineup of James, Davis, Reeves, Vincent and Taurean Prince can balance the needs of the offense and defense, and they have played six meaningful games together. Hamm has time to figure out which players he can really trust.

But overall, the Lakers’ survival depends on every minute James is on the court or on the bench. They’re fully aware of how fragile their record and health are, and prioritizing the former over the back five during an 82-game regular season is just playing with fire.

determination: novel. The Lakers are overly reliant on LeBron James, who is nearly 40 years old.