While some fans were initially confused by the NBA’s in-season tournament, the league’s experiment is working.
Now that eight teams will advance to the quarterfinals, we have a clearer idea of who can become the first player to win the NBA Cup Most Valuable Player award. Despite being eliminated, other big names still compete.
According to NBA.com, the award will be awarded “based on a player’s performance in the group stage and knockout rounds.”
However, in order to give us some context on how everyone performed in seeding matches, we wanted to provide a credible all-encompassing metric for how players performed in group play.
As we mentioned before the season, we asked a basketball data scientist who works for an NBA team to tell us which is the best statistic using only scoring data. This person suggested we use the Daily RAPM Estimate (DRE) Kevin Ferrigan.
You can learn more about this metric by Nylon Calculus. But the simplified version is that it’s similar to Player Efficiency Rating (PER), but the weights are derived from the RAPM (which you can learn more about here) rather than just arbitrary weights.
Each player is accompanied by their current odds and percentile ranking in returning DRE per 48 minutes during the NBA season tournament seeding games.
Meanwhile, for those who don’t win the MVP, it’s worth noting that the league will also hand out All-Star Game honors. Until then, however, here’s how the odds shape up, based on what we’ve seen so far.
All odds listed below are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
related: Here are the official brackets for the first elimination round of the NBA In-Season Championship
Maddie Meyer/Getty Images
Odds: +450
Implied probability: 18.2%
RERESSED DRE/48 (seed game):-1.4 (43rd percentile)
Despite being currently considered the favorite for NBA Cup MVP, Boston’s Jayson Tatum didn’t actually perform well in the seeding games.
He averaged 21.8 points per game and shot only 7 of 33 (21.2%) from three-point range. Tatum has nearly as many turnovers (11) as he has assists (12) in those games. However, the MVP will likely go to the best player on the best team. As of now, the Celtics (+300) are the favorite to win the tournament, according to DraftKings.
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
Odds: +650
Implied probability: 13.3%
RERESSED DRE/48 (seed game):4.5 (98th percentile)
LeBron James has won the NBA Finals MVP award four times and the regular season MVP award four times. Even as the oldest player in the league, he can become the first NBA Cup MVP winner.
The Lakers (+550) are currently considered the favorite in the Western Conference, according to DraftKings. They remain undefeated in the group stage, and James is a big reason why. He averaged 25.0 points per game and made 14 of 24 three-pointers (58.3%). James also averaged 8.0 rebounds and 7.5 assists in the Lakers’ four wins.
Sergio Estrada/USA TODAY Sports
Odds: +650
Implied probability: 13.3%
RERESSED DRE/48 (seed game):5.7 (99th percentile)
De’Aaron Fox is the first player to win the Jerry West Trophy, awarded to KIA’s NBA Key Player of the Year. If the Kings can keep going the rest of the way, Fox could become the first team to win both NBA Cup MVP awards.
In the seeding games, Fox is the leading scorer among players remaining in the tournament (36.0 points per game). In the seeding games, he averaged 8.0 rebounds and 8.7 assists per game and committed only 1.7 turnovers.
Stacey Revere/Getty Images
Odds: +650
Implied probability: 13.3%
RERESSED DRE/48 (seed game):3.8 (97th percentile)
Along with the Celtics, the Bucks (+340) are the other team favorites to win the NBA in-season tournament, according to DraftKings. If they do, the deal to acquire Damian Lillard could be the reason.
His performance as the game approaches will also provide memorable moments for voters. As the current scoring leader at critical moments in the regular season, Lillard also leads all scorers at critical moments in the tournament during the season. He’s 8-for-11 (72.7%) from the field in those seeding games.
Stacey Revere/Getty Images
Odds: +700
Implied probability: 12.5%
RERESSED DRE/48 (seed game):3.3 (96th percentile)
Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo is a two-time MVP and NBA Finals MVP. He’s another intriguing candidate to become the first NBA Cup MVP.
Antetokounmpo averaged 25.5 points per game, while also contributing 8.8 rebounds and 5.8 assists in the group stage. He turns the ball over a bit (4.5 per game) but is a solid contributor on the defensive end. While he’s also shooting efficiently, the biggest obstacle to his candidacy moving forward may be the presence of Damian Lillard. Both players will need to perform well to win the tournament, but if the Bucks win it all, the guard could potentially take home the trophy.
Alex Goodlett/Getty Images
Odds: +850
Implied probability: 10.5%
RERESSED DRE/48 (seed game):5.7 (99th percentile)
Kevin Durant is a two-time NBA Finals MVP and a regular season MVP. He could also add an MVP touch to his trophy collection during the NBA Cup.
Durant shot 12-of-16 from three (75.0%) in the seeding games. He averaged an impressive 35.7 points, 7.3 rebounds and 7.7 assists per game for the Suns.
Maddie Meyer/Getty Images
Odds: +900
Implied probability: 10.0%
RERESSED DRE/48 (seed game):1.1 (88th percentile)
While the Celtics are considered the favorite to win the NBA Cup, the team has enough star power to make it difficult to bet on which player will win the MVP award.
But it’s worth mentioning: Brown performed better than Tatum in the seeding games, which is obviously important for the award. He averages more points, assists, steals and blocks per game than Tatum. Meanwhile, Brown’s three-point shooting percentage is twice as high as Tatum’s in the group stage. The question is whether this will continue in the knockout rounds, or whether it will be reversed.
Justin Ford/Getty Images
Odds: +1000
Implied probability: 9.1%
RERESSED DRE/48 (seed game):6.1 (100th percentile)
Given his odds, Phoenix’s Devin Booker might be the most interesting bet of the remaining players in the tournament.
Booker once again became an effective point guard, averaging 30.7 points, 4.0 rebounds and 8.3 assists in the Suns’ group games. It’s also worth noting that Phoenix outscored opponents by 25.2 points per 100 possessions with Booker on the floor, which was the best of any player in the group (lowest: 200 possessions).
Emily Chin/Getty Images
Odds: +1300
Implied probability: 7.1%
RERESSED DRE/48 (seed game):4.7 (98th percentile)
Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton was the breakout star of the NBA season tournament group stage. Of the rest, he does have a chance to win NBA Cup MVP.
Haliburton averaged 28.5 points per game and made 21 of 45 three-pointers (46.7%). No player took more shots from beyond the arc in group play. He also led all players in the seeding games with 13.5 assists per game while averaging just 2.8 turnovers per game. He had a double-double in every game with the Pacers, and all games ended in wins.
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
Odds: +1400
Implied probability: 6.7%
RERESSED DRE/48 (seed game):4.5 (98th percentile)
If the Lakers win the NBA in-season tournament, LeBron James will be the most likely to hear his name called MVP. But don’t count on his big man Anthony Davis.
Davis is one of only five players to record a double-double in all four seeding games. He, along with Haliburton, is one of only two men to achieve the same feat and remain in the tournament. He also had the second-most blocks of any player in group play (12).
Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images
Odds: +2000
Implied probability: 4.8%
RERESSED DRE/48 (seed game):3.1 (96th percentile)
Sergio Estrada/USA TODAY Sports
Odds: +2000
Implied probability: 4.8%
RERESSED DRE/48 (seed game):1.4 (91st percentile)
Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports
Odds: +2500
Implied probability: 3.8%
RERESSED DRE/48 (seed game):2.3 (95th percentile)
Vincent Cachietta/USA TODAY Sports
Odds: +2500
Implied probability: 3.8%
RERESSED DRE/48 (seed game):3.0 (96th percentile)
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