Investors are piling up and BTC inventories on exchanges are down.
A supply shock similar to that of November 2020 is building, says Willy Woo.
After his last market bulletin, last Monday, August 23, in which he warned of “a short-term bearish outlook” in the bitcoin market, analyst Willy Woo pointed out this Friday that long-term investors are returning to an accumulation phase.
“A new supply shock is forming that is expected to drive the price up in the fourth quarter of this year, similarly to what happened in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021,” says the analyst in his analysis this Friday.
A situation is taking shape that has not been seen until now in the bitcoin market, Woo notes, as there are early signs that the bitcoin cycle scheme of the last four years may be broken. The analyst had already referred to this issue in a tweet on August 18. Woo said at the time that, if the bull cycle extended to 2022, bitcoin could break free from the four-year cycles that halvings have imposed so far.
In the following graph, it can be seen that both the shock, or unavailability of supply on exchanges, and the shock due to investor demand, show a rebound in recent days.
This implies that investors are hoarding and exchanges inventories have shrunk, both indicators of upward pressure on the bitcoin price, Woo notes. “The reality is that there is a supply shock and a flat price action outlook, not a bearish one,” the analyst said.
Change in bitcoin accumulation trend
Regarding last Monday’s bulletin, commented on by CriptoNoticias, there was a change in the strategy of long-term investors. From a sales phase, it returned to the accumulation of BTCWoo maintains.
In the following heat map of the bitcoin sale, an update of the one shown last Monday is offered. From a sales situation shown in the previous graph, here the most recent activity is buying (green circle)
This map shows two overlapping impacts on the visualization, Woo says: BTC flows from long-term investors, and net flows to and from exchanges. In both cases, red is bearish and green is bullish, the analyst maintains. It can be inferred that if investors are buying there would be upward pressure on prices as bitcoin would appear undervalued.
At the time of writing, bitcoin reaches a price of USD 48,302, which represents an appreciation of 3.07% in the last 24 hours, according to the CriptoNoticias price index.