The consulting firm LCG points out in its latest report that “6.7% of GDP was accumulated in BCRA debt during 2021” and states that “with the new rate policy it is expected that the bill for the interests of the remunerated liability will simply be made more elevated ”. “In fact, if there is a reversal of passive passes to Leliq at 28 days at this level, the interest bill increases by $ 225,000 million (0.5% GDP)”, adds the work, which considers that “only higher inflation can absorb this excess of pesos thanks to the increase in the nominal demand for pesos “.
The common fund manager MegaQM assures that “the rate hike applied by the BCRA encourages banks to extend terms up to the 28-day Leliq” and states that “given current prices, the BCRA’s yield is above the instruments of the Treasury ”. “Is there a pending adjustment in the Treasury curve?” it is asked in the report, noting that “it will depend on how banks allocate surplus liquidity.”
The manager considers that for now they should use the L28D to the full, especially with the two-weekly bidding scheme, and that work should be done on the maturity profile to maintain high levels of liquidity. On the other hand, he maintains that “the balance should be assigned between a 1-day pass and the L180D” so he concludes that it is going to make it more difficult for Guzmán to place his letters. “For now, the Treasury curve does not have the necessary appeal,” MegaQM warned.
Eugenio Mari, chief economist of the Fundación Libertad y Progreso, pointed out that last year the BCRA issued pesos worth 3.5% of GDP, which is one of the highest levels since the 1990s. For Marín “the The problem is that since the BCRA is bankrupt, the sterilization it did to prevent the issue from going to prices, it becomes a future issue ”.
“If the BCRA were solvent, it would redeem the leliqs that it issues with assets but since it does not have them, when the redemption will have to issue,” explained Mari, who considered that two scenarios could arise in the not too distant future. One is that the process of issuance, absorption and more inflation spirals and the other is that the government manages to reduce the rate of prices and with this the BCRA begins to order its balance sheet. To do this, it would be necessary to stop issuing to finance the Treasury deficit. Regarding the fiscal path that Guzmán presented to the IMF to close an agreement, he indicated that “it is a scenario that seeks balance in 2027 so the BCRA has to continue issuing,” which seems contradictory to the idea of avoiding financing of the State by way of issuance.
Sergio Chouza, from the University of Avellaneda, considers it possible that the BCRA’s rate increase policy, still below inflation, has a cost of half a point of GDP. “It is a fact that it seeks to align the rate scheme to the nominality of the economy. You cannot have a negative rate of such a proportion as it was until now for an indefinite period of time, “he said, and agreed that if a path that seeks to have positive rates is followed,” inflation must be lowered.