Spain awaits peak of infections in worst outbreak since COVID-19

“In recent days, we have faced a significant increase in respiratory virus infections, and the rebound is expected to continue to intensify in the coming days.” Monica GarciaWhen health ministers announced last Friday the formation of a special inter-regional committee to deal with the escalating flu, they were not entirely optimistic.

Despite accelerating infections, saturation of emergency settings (primary and hospital), and peak hospitalizations, After Christmas, seasonal flu epidemics are expected to be at their worst.

“Typically, there’s a second peak after the holidays,” he explained. Daniel TroncosoDirector of Preventive Medicine and Public Health Services, Hospital Prince of Asturias, Alcalá de Henares (Madrid).

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“We hope to plateau within a few weeks; it will probably plateau in about two to three weeks and then start to decline,” he estimated. This flu season is reaching epidemic levels earlier than in previous years of the pandemic.

Part of the reason, Troncoso continued, is “the anomaly of previous years, which slowed the spread of respiratory diseases through the use of masks and ventilators.” This year, “unfortunately, Vaccination rates remain below ideal levels, considering that 75% coverage must be achieved to achieve herd immunity. “

despite this, Joan KeiraThe coordinator of the Barcelona TB Research Group and former head of the epidemiological service of the Barcelona Public Health Authority warned that the flu season will only end “with the arrival of good weather”.

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“We have to hope that, like what happened before COVID-19, this situation will continue for several months,” the doctor told Corriere della Sera. He noted that official data may speak of stabilization of infections, but “the reality may be more, with people doing self-diagnostic tests at home and not having to notify doctors.”

This stabilization occurs among infections reported in primary care. The incidence rate in the last week of December was 952.9 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, a slight increase from the previous week (921.7 cases) and a slight respite compared with the previous week (a 72. 8% increase in 15 days).

This slowdown in gains has two aspects. SARS-CoV-2 and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections are declining, while influenza infections continue to rise. The positivity rate of influenza tests at sentinel centers increased from 27.1% to 46% in one week.

Flu hospital admissions accelerating

Severe infections are not stabilizing, but quite the opposite. The hospitalization rate increased from 21 to 28.7 per 100,000 residents, an acceleration compared with previous trends.

“The incidence of influenza is much higher than it has been in recent years, and it’s very virulent,” the nurse explained. Maria Jose GarciaSatse, spokesman for the nurses union.

“Not in 2020, not in 2021, and we’re halfway there in 2022. We’ve had a few boom years in terms of flu infections because of the use of masks, so that we stopped the spread of it.”

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Garcia also emphasized that the success of the new crown vaccination has also enabled the influenza vaccine, which has traditionally had low coverage, to achieve the highest coverage in Spain’s history. However, while there are no official figures yet for this year, “we are talking about 46%, which is far from the expected 75% coverage.”

Health Minister Monica Garcia said she would work with the autonomous regions to develop an action plan for next winter to avoid a collapse like the current one. However, health workers consulted by this newspaper warned that This saturation isn’t surprising: It happened every year before the pandemic.

On top of this, the state of primary care has yet to recover from the blow of the pandemic, and a collapse in primary public health care has strained hospital care.

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Maria José García admitted: “We are not facing anything new, but we are facing something that we have forgotten about.” A spokesman for Satse noted that “You’ve seen beds in hospital corridors because there’s no room for patients“Some centers are considering suspending surgeries and so on.”

Garcia could only comment on how sad it is that “a process that happens every year, that we know is going to happen, but always catches health administrations off guard.” At least, something seems likely to continue to happen. in the short and medium term.