Specialist of the UNAM predicts the peak of the infection in Mexico and the return to normalcy

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Mexico city.- Currently the spread of the virus in Mexico is in a stage of exponential growth and will continue to do so throughout the month of April, so it is expected that the first two semanass of may, the country registered the maximum numbers of people infected between the 6th and the 13th of that month, while the return to normalcy, is estimated at the beginning of the month of June.

The above explained dr. Gustavo Cruz Pacheco, a researcher at the Institute in Applied Mathematics and Systems (IIMAS) of UNAM, who together with other specialists developed a mathematical model that works with the official data to estimate the way in which it has evolved disease in the urban areas of the country, where the virus behaves similarly.

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This prediction model is based on
the outbreak is recorded of Influenza AH1N1 in 2009, which is in turn based
in a scheme of differential equations proposed by medical
scots to analyze the Spanish flu of 1927.

It
allowed to detail how to
came the infectious outbreak
,
their growth, at what point would the peak
more high and their decay
,
all of this is based on two parameters: one biological,
that has to do with the nature
the virus
and
the reaction
of the bodies
human,
and another social,
related measures
mitigation
for
to lessen their spread.

It is worth mentioning that the numbers
it supports your model, since they were the ones who indicated in February
past, when Mexico was still in stage 1, that would be between the 20
and may 30, when the cases start to grow
exponential and the log indicates that the march 25, Mexico went from
have 35 cases per day, approximately to 70.





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