Swiatek vs. Pegula in WTA Finals: Facts and Statistics Behind the Crucial Match in Cancun

When asked by reporters how she would handle her WTA Finals showdown with Jessica Pegula, Iga Swiatek responded: “I can’t really tell you the key.”

There are plenty of people who can ride it, though. The impact of their match in Cancun was more than just a title.

Here are some facts and statistics ahead of a crucial encounter.

Swiatek or Sabalenka compete for year-end No. 1 ranking

If Swiatek wins, she will become the WTA’s year-end number one. She eliminated the current number one woman Sabalenka in the semi-finals, which means that the defending world number one has only won the championship at the WTA Year-End Finals, which has occurred once in the past eight tournaments (2019, Ashe ·Bati).

If Pegula wins, her ranking will rise one spot to world No. 4, and she will hand over the year-end No. 1 spot to Sabalenka.

Both players are in irresistible form

Before this year, only two players had reached the final without dropping a set – Justine Henin in 2007 and Serena Williams in 2012 (who went on to win the title). Neither Swiatek nor Pegula have dropped a set yet – so something has to give.

Swiatek leads the head-to-head 5-3, but Pegula won the most recent matchup. Here are their previous meetings:

2023 Montreal semifinals: Pegula 6-2, 6-7 (4), 6-4
2023 Doha Final: Swiatek 6-3, 6-0
2023 Fed Cup: Pegula 6-2, 6-2
2022 San Diego Semifinals: Swiatek 4-6, 6-2, 6-2
2022 US Open Quarterfinals: Swiatek 6-3, 7-6 (4)
2022 French Open quarterfinals: Swiatek 6-3, 6-2
2022 Miami Semifinals: Swiatek 6-2, 7-5
2019 Washington, D.C. Top 16: Pegula 5-7, 6-4, 6-1

Players with a 3-0 record in the group stage since the round-robin format was reintroduced in 2003
You have won the title eight times, most recently in 2018 (Elina Svitolina). Whoever wins on Monday will become the ninth player to do so.

Sizzling Swiatek

Swiatek currently has a record of 12-6 against top-10 opponents in 2023; the only player with ten top-10 wins this season. Currently, she has won ten consecutive victories after winning the Beijing Station, defeating Wimbledon champion Marka Vondrousova, US Open champion Coco Gauff and Wimbledon finalist Ons Jaa in the round-robin match in Cancun. Bull, and world No. 1 and Australian Open champion Sabalenka in the semifinals.

Pegula at her peak

Pegula is the first American to reach the WTA finals since Sloane Stephens in 2018. She is the fourth American to reach the WTA year-end finals since the round-robin format was reintroduced in 2003, joining Stephens, Serena Williams and Venus Williams.

In 2023, Pegula went 51-0 after winning the first set, including the Billy Jean King Cup. Since 2000, only two players have had a 50+-0 season (excluding retirements) after winning the first set: Lindsay Davenport (53-0, 2001) and Victoria Azarenka (60-0, 2012).