The wholesale exchange rate ended unchanged at $ 100.25, as did the official one, which closed at $ 105.25. The so-called Solidarity, concluded at $ 173.66 also unchanged. The MEP rose 0.6% to $ 183, while the MEP that uses GD30 bonds advanced 1.4% to $ 201.64. On the other hand, the Cash with Settlement concluded at $ 184.2 with an increase of 0.6%, while the so-called SENEBI, which is privately negotiated between parties, was in the order of $ 217 to $ 220.
A market operator consulted by Financial sphere He was clear when describing the scenario: “This is explained because everyone is looking for coverage. Many do not want to have assets in pesos when Monday arrives. ” Market behavior is more related to not being clear about what can happen after the elections, beyond the fact that the government assured that there will be no change in the regime that has been operating so far, consisting of devaluing 1% per month against a 3% inflation.
In a hectic journey, the Risk country It reached 1,753 points, its highest level since the renegotiation of the debt with private creditors, with an increase of almost 28% in the year.
Since last September, the blue rose 22 pesos (12%). In 2021, the currency traded on the black market accumulated an increase of 24.4%.
Camilo Tiscornia, director of C&T Economic Advisors, stated that “There is a context of enormous liquidity in the economy and great mistrust over the issue of the elections.” Tiscornia pointed out “the situation is very complex and that is why the blue dollar continues to rise.” “One could say that the parallel market is small, but if you look at financial dollars like SENEBI, which have more volume, they are also growing,” added the financial analyst.
In the context of instability, it is inevitable that some will look to the convertibility exchange rate. The IERAL, the business school of the Mediterranean Foundation, posted a report in which he points out that “It has not been common in Argentina the existence of exchange gaps above 100% that have lasted for too long.” “In the 1980s there were two moments in which the exchange rate gap exceeded 100%, in the Malvinas War and during hyperinflation, but these were fleeting phenomena,” said IERAL. The entity maintains that “the evolution of the price of the dollar in the free market, now at the $ 200 level, tends to reflect monetary imbalances.” “Comparing the evolution of the Broad Monetary Base with that of the gross reserves of the Central Bank, it appears that at the end of October there were $ 188.1 per dollar when at the end of 2020 that ratio had been $ 131.4 and $ 66 at the end of 2019 ”, indicated the business school of the Mediterranean Foundation.
Walter Morales, director of WISE, explained that “When there is economic and fiscal uncertainty and without a political anchor, people go out to protect their assets.” “After so many crises, people understand that the local currency is useless and automatically goes to the dollar,” Morales said. In relation to the “convertible dollar” he said that “if the corrected monetary liabilities are taken including the remunerated liabilities, we are talking about a dollar above $ 240”.
In the last days, the central bank he had to increase his interventions to avoid a major breakaway. This Thursday he sold $ 40 million and thus completed three days in which he had to leave $ 330 million.
In this regard, the consulting firm Equilibra warned that “the stock of net reserves to sustain the current rate of crawling peg is very limited (US $ 4,650 million, with a total monthly intervention of US $ 430 million in the average for the year)”. “Our baseline scenario contemplates a loss of net reserves of US $ 1.2 billion for the remainder of the year,” said Equilibra. The consulting firm included in its estimates the income of US $ 700 million in the last two months from agriculture.