The day after: how it will change the coronavirus to the narco in Mexico

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The epidemic coronavirus dipped to Mexico in a health crisis and economic dimensions yet undreamed-of. This is an ingredient explosive in a country beset by drug cartels whose violence is reflected in march with more than 40,000 killings.

In this context, the drug traffickers move their pieces on the national territory to position themselves in what could be a reconfiguration of the map of the crime and of the organizations themselves.

With the delivery of food to the population, threats, curfew clandestine and progress armed, infamous organizations as the Cartel of Jalisco New Generation, The Viagras and The Familia Michoacanaextend their tentacles, trying to fill gaps left by the State to territories burdened by the incipient economic crisis.

“A raging river, gain of fishermen”, and synthesizes the journalist specializing in issues of security, Óscar Balderas, the landscape of the cartels in unserved and underserved regions of Tamaulipas and Sinaloa.

The objective of the criminal groups is not only to make money, but to win a social basis and to manage power and Balderas anticipates that they can succeed.

“Organized crime needs two components required for power to exist: the institutional support —authorities are corrupt or corruptible, and the social base, that is to say, people in the villages that allow you to operate at the margin of the surveillance State, this can be from informants, people who protect the places and businesses that need the dirty money of the drug to continue to operate their businesses”, explained the specialist Infobae Mexico.

In the country, there are 346,000 people whose jobs disappeared between march and April, therefore, the State prepares an injection that will arrive in a few weeks or even months; however, many people have the need and accepts the help of the drug in turn. Also support of money, for the cartels are nothing, but for the poor it is all.

The government’s announcement about the temporary jobs for farmers and soft loans for small businesses may be insufficient to address the magnitude of the crisis. At this point you run the risk of organized crime to impersonate the State in the provision of jobs.

The groups of the drug trade have an advantage over the government: they are still there, while the rulers spend. This has been the traditional behavior of the mafia, and in that context includes the national emergency today.

Many of the mexicans who are getting the help of the narco will have lost their jobs and become a worker in the organized crime will be the only alternative to survive.

Also, the new governance and/or economic opportunities for the drug cartels in the country could be in the usury: they will seek to lend money to entrepreneurs at low-interest. Your people go looking for them, hotel, restaurant, in order to rob them of their commercial activity. “The criminal groups have been offering lines of credit or loans to some businesses that are on the verge of breaking by the economic crisis,” said Balderas.

The objective of the narco moneylender is gradually rise until the employer fails to pay. Once removed from the company, the gangster will use it to launder money.

“All of this, which are apparently aid pro bono, solidarity with the people, affection for the people, it is obviously a strategy to strengthen the organized crime. First, expand your social base. With the loans, the cartels will have more people that owe them a favor because the delivery of money pledges to the people. Although they don’t say so, at some point the favor they are going to charge. Second, it is very likely that the big capos of the drug ending up with a greater number of revenues; however, the smaller (cartels) might receive a blow almost fatal”, summarizes the expert.

Balderasthat has been one of the first to warn about the impunity of organized crime, projected to the end of the pandemic as well: “when all of this ends we will face less cartels or expressions more compact, but with more of a basis for social and economic liquidity. This is a high risk to public safety”.

The challenge of the cartels. The coronavirus also corrode the weak part of the criminal groups. The need of the crimes to go on living. Cartels weakened as the Santa Rosa de Lima or The Viagras. “If the pandemic is extended three months more, probably these small local groups are not going to be able to continue handing out food, and going to devour the large groups that do have liquidity and ability to take away the social base,” explains Balderas.

This scenario leads to a outbreak of violence important in the country because the criminal groups will begin to jockey plaza. Then, expressions such as shootings, kidnappings, beheadings, extortion will be present on a large scale.

Leaving aside the warnings, it is important to note that Mexico is beating between the health crisis and the security.

Despite the fact that in the country, the organized crime poses a major challenge, the past April 9, the government authorized states and municipalities use to fund anti-crime for the purchase of medical supplies for care of the COVID-19 (12,000 million pesos), which ensures that a possible failure to anticipate and contrast the criminals.

The coronavirus is taking us to unknown territories in terms of organized crime and it seems that the worst is to come. The uncertainty arises on how the cartels and mexican gangs will adapt to the current situation, and will be the magnitude of the economic crisis that will reveal that both are erosionará the “governance” criminal, or, conversely, will be more strong.



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