Although the world played in favor, Argentine assets continue to be expelled from investors’ portfolios. The parity of debt bonds seems to have no end and is approaching default values. The country risk, which increased for the eighth consecutive time, showed the movement. The day before it had paused, but the trend did not change and yesterday it rose 13 units (+ 0.7%) to 1,833 basis points. It was 39 points behind the post-default record.
The bonds with the highest movement, the AL30 (-0.60%) and the GD30 (-1.02%), were the ones that most disappointed investors who expected a rebound to close the gap between both bonds. But although the difference narrowed, it was due to the different magnitudes of the fall – the GD30 was very offered – and not due to a recovery. Is that The restrictions imposed by the Central Bank are absurd because they make it difficult to sell dollars through bonds. They act like investment days and lose the opportunity to earn bookings.
With the downwind that caused the fall of the 10-year United States Treasury bonds, which lowered their yield by 2 points to 1.725%, Argentine securities were not up to par and did not replicate the movements of the countries of the region where the various risks fell by around 3 units. in Colombia it yielded to 341 basis points, in Brazil to 336 and in Peru to 150.
The lack of agreement with the IMF seems an installed reality in the market that is hedged in dollars and in bonds that adjust for inflation and gets rid of debt securities with local and foreign legislation.
For example, in yesterday’s bond auction, the only Treasury Bill that adjusts for CER, took 41% of the offers. 59% was distributed among three discount bills at an effective rate of return that is close to an average annual rate of 48% and where there was participation of official bodies. The indexed Letter was tendered at a negative rate of 0.23%.
The good news was that $ 114,000 million were raised to cover maturities of $ 55,500 million With which there was a net in favor of the Treasury of $ 58,722 million that will reduce the amount to be issued to meet the expenses. The problem is that by raising rates, indebtedness increases and an unmanageable mass of debt is being formed. if the Leliq of the Central Bank are added.
In these circumstances, and due to the fall in the dollar parity of the bonds, the MEP dollar with few operations fell 37 cents to $ 202.09 and the cash with liquidation, $ 1.24 to $ 209.22. The fall in bond parity is subsidizing capital flight and currency purchases.
Argentina is very weak for the world that comes without subsidies from the Federal Reserve to the North American economy
In the wholesale market, the Central Bank adjusted the devaluation and the dollar increased 10 cents to $ 103.67. In the midst of the slow movement, he bought $ 1 million, but reserves increased by USD 9 million to USD 39,199 million due to the fall of 0.67% of the dollar against the six main currencies of the world and the rise of 0.45% of gold.
The fall in the dollar shows that world investors take more risks and that is why the New York Stock Exchanges rebounded despite the fact that year-on-year inflation was 7%, in line with expectations, and that a rate hike is expected in March.
The “blue” continued higher with less movement and lost 50 cents to close at $ 208.50.
The Stock Market accompanied the best climate in the world at half speed. Although the S&P Merval, the index of leading stocks, rose 0.46%, it did so inconsistently due to the meager amount of deals of $ 605 million.
The highlights passed again by Central Puerto (+ 4.01%) and by Pampa Energy (+ 2.08%) helped by the rise in oil of 4%. Regarding the power plant, there are serious speculations regarding the percentage of rate increases because reality indicates a different path from that announced by the Government.
The ADRs – certificates of holding of shares that are traded on the New York Stock Exchange – traded $ 2,274 million and remain attractive to investors who can hedge in dollars with stocks that are on the rise. The ADR’s are quoted at the price of the dollar counted with settlement. In this sector, those with the best performance were those of Central Puerto (+ 5.1%), Pampa Energía (+ 4.2%) and Ternium (+ 4%).
Bonds that track inflation and the dollar remain the hedging assets. In the shares, they are betting on energy companies, because a greater rise in oil is expected and some external factor, such as the agreement with the IMF, which forces to reformulate the increase in rates. Argentina is very weak for the world that comes without subsidies from the Federal Reserve to the North American economy.