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the forecast of 40 experts

Analysts and operators participating in the Market Expectations Survey predicted how the dollar and inflation will evolve

December started with some calm in the market dollar, after the extreme volatility that surrounded the legislative elections. However, new restrictions, rumors about financial measures and the official lack of definition about the agreement with the IMF make the situation far from being able to be called a “pax exchange”.

In this context, Argentines ask again what will happen to the US currency price in the next few months.

The Dolar blue closed this Friday at $ 200.50 (just $ 1.50 above last month), while the official He kept moving slowly upward. In this context, new forecasts arrive on what What will happen to the price of the American ticket at the end of the year. An interesting and useful perspective on what is to come can be found in the Central Bank REM survey.

The monetary authority published this Friday the results of the monthly survey it carries out among consultants and analysts in the City. There, experts share their forecasts for the dollar price, inflation and GDP growth.

The financial market agents grouped in the Market Expectations Survey (REM) estimated that the wholesale official exchange rate will reach $ 103.70 per dollar at the end of December of this year.

This is a decrease of $ 1.40 with respect to the forecasts of the previous REM. This indicates that the market does not believe that there will be a surge in the official exchange rate in the coming weeks.

In parallel, The survey shows that analysts forecast a dollar price of $ 161 for December 2022. That is, $ 2 above the forecast they had last month.

The wholesale dollar closed this Friday at $ 101.16, so analysts consider that it has $ 2.54 left to climb until the end of the year.

The following graph shows the evolution of the average price of the dollar estimated for the end of the year by more than 40 banks and market consultants:

Evolution of REM forecasts.  Price of the wholesale dollar projected for the end of December 2021.

Evolution of REM forecasts. Price of the wholesale dollar projected for the end of December 2021.

REM participants also anticipated that the november inflation amounted to 3.1%. In addition, market analysts projected that retail inflation will be around 51.1% year-on-year by year-end. Also, the inflation forecast for the year 2022 It is 52.1%.

Regarding the interest ratesBy the end of December, analysts forecast a Badlar rate (which applies to fixed-term deposits over $ 1 million) from private banks in pesos of 34.50%. The survey adds that the rate would reach 36.45% by December 2022.

Banks and consulting firms now see an official wholesale dollar around $ 110.23 for December 2021.

Banks and consulting firms now see an official wholesale dollar around $ 103.70 by the end of this year.

How much the economy will grow, according to REM

REM analysts foresee a recovery of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) around the 9.7%. Here you can see a strong improvement in the outlook, given that last month they had forecast growth of 8.3%.

The Market Expectations Survey (REM) consists of a systematic monitoring of the main short and medium-term macroeconomic forecasts that are usually made by specialized local and foreign analysts on the evolution of selected variables of the Argentine economy that are compiled by the Central Bank.

Expectations regarding retail prices, the interest rate, the nominal exchange rate, economic activity and the primary result of the national non-financial public sector are surveyed.

The latest report disseminates the results of the survey carried out between November 26 and 30, 2021.

Forecasts of 41 participants were considered, among which are 27 consulting firms and local research centers and 14 financial entities in Argentina. For this edition of the BCRA survey, foreign analysts were not consulted.

Dollar in 2022: this anticipates FocusEconomics

In addition to the REM of the BCRA, another large survey highly regarded in the market is the one published monthly by FocusEconomics, the latest edition of which was released in mid-August.

In this case, some 40 national and foreign economists draw up their monthly forecasts of what will happen in the coming months.

According to the different projections, the price of the official wholesale dollar would end this year around the $ 110. That is, the devaluation for the entire 2021 it would be almost 31%.

As for the consensus that economists expect for the exchange rate in December 2022, it shows an upward trend.

The November consensus from FocusEconomics is that the wholesale dollar will play at the end of next year the $ 159.58, an increase in the price of around 2 pesos compared to the figures estimated in the previous survey (October) for the same date.

The forecast for the dollar 2022 of the analysts consulted by FocusEconomics.

The forecast for the dollar 2022 of the analysts consulted by FocusEconomics.

“The flight of the weight, the inflation and the Print of money will continue to weigh on the currency in 2022 “, details this report.

In this way, if all the estimates are met, the expected devaluation for the whole of next year would be 45%. In other words, a level very similar to the expected inflation for the same period, which is almost 48%.

Likewise, the economists’ projections are above the project of budget 2022 that the Government sent to Congress, where it foresees an official exchange rate of $ 131.10 and inflation of 33% by the end of next year.

A fact that draws attention is that in the futures and options market Matba-Rofex, is being traded for the longest period, which is May 2022, a wholesale dollar price of $ 136.5. Therefore, it would be exceeding what was foreseen by the official budget.

It is expected that the price of the dollar will continue to rise in the coming months p

It is expected that the price of the dollar will continue to rise in the coming months, in line with inflation.

Price of the dollar, according to economists

When analyzing the specific projections of the different economists in the FocusEconomics report, a certain dispersion of the data can be perceived, which ranges from a minimum of $ 135 to a maximum of $ 180, according to the consulting firm or bank surveyed.

The The highest price for the wholesale exchange rate for December 2022, is the one held by the national consulting firm Econometric, in the $ 180.49. It is followed by Quantum Finanzas with $ 180.

Also the consultant Empiria foresees $ 175.60 By the end of 2022 and, according to iProfesional, the arguments are as follows.

If net reserves are observed, since the last week of October the BCRA has been losing an average of US $ 100 million a day, a very dangerous trend, and the gap reached 100% these days. This shows that economic tensions began to deepen and under this dynamic the exchange rate scheme becomes unsustainable, increasing the chances of a correction in the summer, “he told this media. Jerónimo Montalvo, economist at Empiria.

And he adds: “This will not solve things either if the Government does not specify a economic plan, both fiscal and monetary, that seek to demonstrate that the ‘weight’ still has life. ”

For its part, Melisa Sala, chief economist at LCG, a consulting firm that is projecting $ 170.5 by end of 2022, details to iProfessional that “the post-election economic scenario is not clear, but it can be thought that, within the framework of an agreement with the IMF, the dollar can not be more behind“.

In other words, it considers that it should, at a minimum, “follow the dynamics of prices. Therefore, this value reflects that scenario in a context in which we do not expect the inflation give in, if not the opposite, “he ends.

On the side of the economist Sebastian Menescaldi, director of Eco Go, is expected by the end of next year an exchange rate of $ 178.58. “We are anticipating that post-legislative elections the devaluation will accelerate a bit, and prices are also rising.”

And he completes: “To the extent that the agreement with the Monetary Fund is delayed, that will cause more nervousness in the market, a greater gap and a higher level of inflation.”

While, Camilo Tiscornia, director of C&T Asesores, whose forecasts are of $ 159.57 By the end of 2022, he also provides his testimonials to iProfessional.

For this economist, his projection is within the average of the forecasts. “Even, the analyst who predicts the least price in the report is at a level above to the value of budget dollar presented by the Government in Congress. Something that reflects the widely shared vision, in which it is believed that the exchange rate is going to have to move faster after the elections. ”

And Ticornia concludes: “We are betting that this is under a more gradual movement from month to month, and not as an abrupt jump.”

Know the value of the dollar in Dollar Today and followed the price and behavior minute by minute. CLICK HERE

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HELEN HERNANDEZ

Helen Hernandez is our best writer. Helen writes about social news and celebrity gossip. She loves watching movies since childhood. Email: Helen@oicanadian.com Phone : +1 281-333-2229

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