These are the Twelve Horsemen of Apocalypse Now

he Institute for the Future of Humanity it is an interdisciplinary research center Oxford university Specialize in Studying “existential risks,” events that could wipe out intelligent life on Earth Otherwise their potential is drastically and permanently reduced.

with Global Challenges Foundationa Swedish organization whose goal is to Mitigating global catastrophic riskspublished a study in which they described the probability of occurrence, Major global challenges that threaten the foundations of our civilization

“I looked, and I saw a bay horse. His rider was named Death, and Hades followed him: and it was given to him to rule over a quarter of the earth, with sword, famine, death, and the Wild beasts come to kill people. Revelation 6:7-8

In days of conflict and crisis, it is worth remembering that science has established: Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse The original mentioned in Bible (The white horse represents conquest, the word of God, or the Antichrist; red, war; black, hunger; and finally yellow, the image of death.), now they are Twelve Knights This could lead us to the end of the world.

Below we describe them, Sort by probability of occurrenceindicating whether it is a current, emerging, or exogenous risk (external to humans).

current risks

this current risksYes are those who have manifested and They are usually accompanied by damageeven though they haven’t reached their full potential yet.

climate change

global warming caused by human activities This is one of the most real threats to the end of the world.

The study’s authors emphasized urgency of the problemwhich could lead to depopulation in some poor countries and lead to a sharp increase in famine.

Probability of occurrence: 0.01%

nuclear war

OK this The possibility of a large-scale conflict between the United States and Russia has declinedanyoneThe risk of intentional or accidental use of nuclear weapons by other countries has increased.

If this occurs, it may result in “nuclear winter“This could end civilization.

Probability of occurrence: 0.005%

Pandemic

along with Increased demand for animal proteinunsustainable agricultural systems, increased use and exploitation of wildlife, and climate change, increase the risk of zoonotic diseases, like COVID-19.

A apocalyptic disease Can be combined incurable disease (such as Ebola virus), Lethality (as in anger), Extremely contagious (such as the common cold) and Long incubation period (e.g. HIV/AIDS), and All these characteristics are already present on our planet.

Probability of occurrence: 0.0001%

ecological collapse

this The current rate of species extinction is faster than historical ratesand attempts to quantify a safe ecological operating space, placing humans outside of it.

Complete and permanent collapse of global ecosystems will lead to The Earth can no longer support billions of people.

Probability of occurrence: indefinite.

global system collapse

The global economic and political/social systems are interconnected and therefore If the economic system collapses, there could be consequences for ecology and critical infrastructure Such as power distribution.

This may trigger Civil unrest and breakdown of law and orderthe end of the world is coming.

Probability of occurrence: indefinite.

emerging risks

this emerging risks Represents a recently discovered real or potential danger to persons and property.they are those Little knowledge or information, but great impact.

AI

This is the most controversial doomsday threat.

No one knows for sure whether AI is really at risk of taking over the worldwiping humanity off the face of the earth, but on the other hand, it could help reduce the risk of other risks considered.

Probability of occurrence: 0-10%

unknown threat

they are the unrecognized Therefore, active treatment is not possible. That is, you have to wait for them to manifest before you can attack them.

This category covers Risks that seem impossible or that scientists have not considered Due to unknown interrelationship with other risks (cascading effects)

Probability of occurrence: 0.1%

synthetic biology

no one doubts Genetic engineering has brought great benefits to mankindmaking crops resistant to drought or pests and improving the genetics of some animals.

but For bioterrorism or military purposesor involuntary release of laboratory-generated pathogens, May cause large-scale disaster.

Probability of occurrence: 0.01%

nano technology

Nanotechnology is Manipulating matter at near-atomic scales to create new structures, materials and devices. This technology promises scientific advancements in many fields including medicine, consumer products, energy, materials and manufacturing.

this Using this technology to create materials could solve thousands of problems, including pollution, climate change and water scarcity. Suitable for drinking. On the other hand, the same technology could be applied to create other highly lethal weapons, Potential to destroy the Earth.

Probability of occurrence: 0.01%

exogenous risk

they are the one develop on the earth’s surface and is activated by meteorological factors, gravity, geological processes occurring within the Earth, or erosional processes that alter the Earth’s surface.

asteroid impact

A An asteroid with a diameter of about 5 kilometers is enough to end civilization.

According to astronomers, the collision On average, an Earth body with these characteristics appears every 20 million years.

Probability of occurrence: 0.00013%

super volcano

One can produce Volcanoes that are 1,000 times larger than previous eruptions are called “supervolcanoes”.

Its eruptions would throw up staggering amounts of Gases and dust that could cause ‘volcanic winter’ Global, the effects are akin to nuclear war.

Probability of occurrence: 0.00003%

global systemic risk

he rglobal systemic risk This is the probability that the global financial system, industry or economy collapses due to the collapse of one of its components. The key to understanding its scope is the interdependence: The closer the connections between components, the greater the risk that a failure in one component will propagate to other components, resulting in chain reaction.

poor governance

s consequence The government cannot solve some important problems It could lead to the end of the world.

The researchers gave the example of a failure to reduce global poverty, which could have serious consequences, e.g. The emergence of global totalitarian states capable of implementing apocalyptic policies

.

Probability of occurrence: indefinite.