U.S. respiratory virus season isn’t over yet

(CNN) — After weeks of decline, some statistics show that U.S. flu rates are starting to rebound again, with respiratory virus levels overall remaining high.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), more than 82,000 emergency room visits were diagnosed with the flu in the week ending January 27. The United States saw an increase of 8%, or about 6,000 more people than the previous week. The overall U.S. flu test positivity rate has also increased.

A second flu spike after the winter holidays is common, but experts say it’s difficult to accurately predict the length and severity of the season. Sometimes this spike is the start of a second wave, but it can also be a small spike before a more steady decline, according to the CDC.

Alicia Budd, who directs national influenza surveillance at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said a second wave of traditional influenza typically occurs after a larger decline, when influenza B viruses begin to outcompete the main circulating influenza A virus.

He added that there was currently no indication that this was happening, but it was too early to rule out something like this.

“We’re still halfway through the season,” Bader said. “It’s too early to know exactly where our final trajectory will be. We don’t know yet. But right now we’re still seeing a lot of activity.”

Covid-19 and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) also continue to circulate at high levels. Emergency room visits for Covid-19 and RSV have been declining for a month, but there were still more than 50,000 emergency room visits for Covid-19 and about 23,000 hospitalizations in the week ending January 27, CDC data shows.

Dr. Michael Mina, an epidemiologist and scientific director at eMed, a telemedicine company that specializes in home testing, said the downward trend in covid-19 is in line with expectations and that the flu peak may be later this season.

“It’s not so much that the flu is replacing COVID-19, it’s that COVID-19 has done its job and is now declining,” he said. (Covid) “Exactly the same as before, in this case, the flu season has moved slightly to the right. Flu changes a few months each year. Covid has been more consistent.”

While national trends are useful, experts say local trends are the best way to gauge risk and make decisions about how to stay safe and healthy.

Overall, 18 states and Washington state still have high or very high respiratory illness rates, according to the CDC. New data from the Centers for Predictive Analytics at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that four states — Florida, New York, Oklahoma and Texas — are seeing increases in flu infections and may also see increases in five more states : Arkansas, Kentucky, Massachusetts, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Wastewater monitoring shows higher levels of Covid-19 in the South, with cases particularly expected to increase in South Carolina.

Experts say trends in the U.S. so far this respiratory virus season remain within expected limits. But the disease burden remains high. The CDC estimates that so far this season, at least 20 million people have been sickened by the flu, 230,000 have been hospitalized, and 14,000 have died.

“It’s normal in terms of activity, but the load is very, very high,” Bader said.

Early data suggests the latest Covid-19 vaccines and this year’s flu shots offer strong protection this season, and experts say it’s not too late to get vaccinated. They also urge the public to follow the rules – washing hands, covering coughs and sneezes, and staying home when sick – to avoid unnecessary infection.

“That’s how we help each other,” Budd said.