Ukraine, a stalemate on the battlefield: Do Kyiv and Moscow lack arsenals?

Ukraine’s latest attack on the port of Sevastopol marks a new stage in the transformation of the war in Ukraine., especially on the southern front. With the start of the so-called “special military operation” The Black Sea almost always ended up firmly in Russian handsthanks to the obvious inequality in resources and training of the Moscow and Kyiv fleets.

However, despite the still clear gap between the two forces, the situation has become more unstable in recent months, primarily due to the tactics and means used by the Ukrainians. Between drone strikes, missile attacks and special forces raids, Kyiv, aided by its NATO allies in both training and intelligence, was able to put enormous pressure on the Russian command. To such an extent that Crimeawhich for Vladimir Putin represents the basis of his Ukrainian agenda, from a stronghold on the Black Sea it turned into the front line.

Confirmation of this new reality on the peninsula is suggested by the latest news coming from the front. After attacking the port with ten Storm Shadow missiles and three droneswhich injured 24 people and damaged the landing ship Minsk and the submarine Rostov-on-Don, the Russian Ministry of Defense said yesterday that it was disrupted at dawn.”Terrorist attack by air-launched UAVs on targets on the territory of the Russian Federationand that “the air defense systems in service destroyed eleven unmanned aerial vehicles on the territory of the Republic of Crimea.” And the day before, the Moscow defense always had announced the neutralization of three naval drones off the coast of Crimeamostly small boats piloted remotely.

If, on the one hand, the peninsula becomes the target of this asymmetrical, surgical and innovative war of the Ukrainian forces, on the other hand, Russia also continues its war using its arsenal of drones.. Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Air Force reported through its social channels that it shot down more than a dozen drones that were aimed at areas of the Dnepropetrovsk, Nikolaev, Sumy and Zaporozhye regions. However, in the Kherson region, Ukrainian authorities announced the death of a six-year-old child during a Russian missile attack. While drones continue to fly from one side of the front to the other, the Russian and Ukrainian front lines appear to have once again entered a phase of significant stalemate, with both sides making small gains. The logic of a war of attrition now seems to prevail over any hypothesis about the rupture of part of the front.Although from the United States, General Mark Milley, chief of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that it was too early to draw final conclusions about the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Kyiv’s offensive did not go as the most optimistic expected. Milly himself suggested this, confirming what had always been his point. But, according to the general, Kiev may still have 30-40 days before the onset of the rainy season. From this point on, mud and the subsequent onset of cold weather could interrupt operations until further notice, freezing the situation on the field.

This realization is the same one that animates Putin, who, unsurprisingly, wanted to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un., conclude a pact on the supply of ammunition and weapons. If the war continues at this pace and, above all, in these ways, Moscow and Kyiv will have to fill the void in their arsenals. North Korea’s weapons industry, largely based on Soviet models, may be ideally suited to Russia’s needs. And if the Kremlin’s idea is to prolong the conflict until the West begins to rethink its strategy for supporting Ukraine, a continuous flow of weapons from Pyongyang could be extremely useful.

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