What impact will it have on the real economy?

Sources from an important industrial chamber said that the impact of the rise of the blue is given in the “expectations”, and that this occurs regardless of the size of the companies. “When they think about the replacement cost they look at the blue or the CCL,” added the same source. “You have price lists that have an implicit dollar that you realize is higher than the official one, since they are thinking about the future of the business,” he said.

Along the same lines, from an auto parts company they said that they import the official dollar of $ 100, and they maintain the price list in dollars. When it comes to selling, they update the exchange rate to a dollar of $ 120 or $ 140, depending on the product. They affirmed that it is a question of making the “mix” between the official and the blue, and being able to hedge against the expectations of devaluation that generates a gap greater than 100%. “They are the antibodies generated by the Argentine businessman,” described the company executive.

To a lesser extent, there are practices of stopping sales until after the elections have passed. “These pre-election days what they do is slow down the current process of recovery of the industry after the double pandemic, so I hope that beyond the result of 14N the Government will advance in a search for consensus,” said Andreozzi. From an important corralón they said that given the price of the blue dollar, in the sector they see it as a “speculative” matter, but nevertheless the manufacturers of inputs put a “cushion” on the prices in the previous election.

The rise of the blue also impacts on the consumer’s logic, according to what he said. Damien Di Pace, from Focus Market. “The saver senses that the value of the dollar is going to be higher, but at the same time a year ago it was $ 195, so it is not that it rose that much, so many what they do is stock up on goods, and that is why strong growth in wholesale sales ”.

Beyond these specific attitudes, the UBA researcher Gabriel Montes carried out an econometric exercise with data on the official exchange rate, the parallel, the gap and inflation, from 2004 to 2020. “Prices follow the official exchange rate, the illustrative example being 2015, when the assumption was that it could be devalued and prices were not going to change because they had followed the blue. And what happened is that inflation was devalued and exploded. The theory says that prices are tied to costs and these are affected by the dollar through imports, which are made to the official “, he claimed.

However, he also assured that there is an “indirect effect”: when the exchange rate gap is very large, reserves are lost, assets in dollars are accumulated, financial problems arise and that eventually adjusts the nominal exchange rate, and therefore prices. . “An excessively large gap could never be maintained,” added the economist.

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Helen Hernandez is our best writer. Helen writes about social news and celebrity gossip. She loves watching movies since childhood. Email: Phone : +1 281-333-2229

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