Why Lionel Messi is the favorite for Ballon d’Or

The 2023 Ballon d’Or will be awarded on Monday, with Lionel Messi expected to win football’s most coveted individual award for an eighth time.

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There is one trophy missing from Lionel Messi’s extensive collection. Some observers (or perhaps Cristiano Ronaldo stalwarts) claim that unless the Barcelona legend can claim the final prize, how can he truly be considered the GOAT?

So, Messi did what Messi has done – even though he has not done it in his previous four World Cups – he won.

Not only did Messi win, but he did so in style, leading an Argentina side that, while solid, was by no means the best team at this World Cup, all the way to glory in Qatar.

Last December, at the Lusail Stadium, Messi finally lifted the trophy he had failed to win. His performances in Qatar echoed those of the late great Diego Maradona in 1986, when he also etched Argentina into the history books in Mexico.

A year after missing out on the 2022 Ballon d’Or shortlist, Messi is now the favorite to win this year’s award, which will take into account performance in the 2022-23 season. It will be his eighth, extending his record.

Yes, Manchester City star Erling Haaland has impressed in his first season in England, setting a new Premier League goalscoring record in a season while scoring an incredible 52 goals for Guardiola. Diola’s side won the treble of Premier League, FA Cup and UEFA Champions League.

Yes, Rodri has played a key role in all of City’s successes, including scoring the winning goal in the Champions League final.

Yes, Kylian Mbappe continues to thrive, having been directly involved in 50 goals in all competitions for PSG.

Yes, Jude Bellingham excelled at Borussia Dortmund before moving to Real Madrid where he has reached superstar status.

But none of them should win this Ballon d’Or above Messi. Here, we explain why he’s most likely to be voted the best player in the world again.

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supreme moment

Messi has scored seven goals and assisted three in Argentina’s seven games against Qatar. These 10 goals accounted for two-thirds of Argentina’s total goals scored (15). He is one of six players – Eusebio (10, 1966), Pele (10, 1970) – to have been involved in at least 10 goals in a single World Cup since assists were first recorded. Ladona (10, 1986), Kylian Mbappe (10, 2022) and Gerd Muller (13, 1970) are the other players on this star-studded list. Just Fontaine (13 goals, 1958) and Sándor Kocsis (11 goals, 1954) also scored more than 10 goals, with assists counted solely through their goals.

Messi is the first player in the history of FIFA’s flagship competition to score in the group stage, round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals and final (he has never scored a knockout goal at a World Cup before) , although he played 756 minutes in the World Cup knockout football and attempted 23 shots), and he is one of only five players to score in six games in a final, the other five Players include Giacinho, Just Fontaine, Salvatore Schillaci and Davo Suker.

The 35-year-old Messi has more shots (32), shots on target (18), chances created in the air (17), fouls committed (22) and total expected goals (6.63) at the 2022 World Cup Aspects top the list, but it’s worth noting that I’ve scored four penalties. His open-game xG is 2.69, the third-highest behind French forwards Kylian Mbappe (3.62) and Olivier Giroud (3.49).

He has also been involved in more aerial sequences than any other player in the competition, has had 53 shots on goal, four more than second place Mbappe, and is level with Antoine Griezmann in terms of big chances created (7 times). Meanwhile, Mbappe is the only player to have touched the ball more times in the opposition area than Messi (68 to 45).

Messi became the most capped player in World Cup history (26), surpassing German great Lothar Matthaus (25), and in the 23rd minute of the final, he overtook Paolo Maldini ( Paolo Maldini’s record minutes played in a World Cup final (2,216 minutes).

His two goals in the final brought his tally to 13 goals in the final, ranking him third on the all-time list behind Brazil’s Ronaldo (15) and Germany’s Miroslav Klose (16). Messi is one of four players to score in four different World Cups, along with Miroslav Klose, Pele and Uwe Seeler, with only Cristiano Ronaldo (of five) scoring more goals in the final. Score more goals.

In addition to winning major awards, Messi also won the Ballon d’Or for his outstanding performance. Mbappe was arguably his main rival for this year’s Ballon d’Or, finishing as the tournament’s top scorer, winning the Golden Boot and scoring a hat-trick in the final, but it was still Messi’s day , can be said to be Messi’s best personal performance. to the World Cup.

In terms of historical data, Messi currently ranks first in the World Cup in terms of chances created (75), chances created in aerial battles (55), attempts with the ball (206), completions with the ball (125), shots on goal (104) and shots on goal . Goal reached (46).

It was one hell of a game for the PSG player at the time, and that alone was enough for him to win the award.

But it wasn’t just the World Cup where he shone last season…

Is Paris Saint-Germain underrated?

Messi was excelling at Paris Saint-Germain heading into last year’s World Cup.

Ahead of the mid-season tournament, no one in Europe’s top five leagues is more threatening than Messi, who averages 1.2 expected goals per 90 minutes in non-penalty situations. Essentially, he’s getting into scoring position and creating high-value chances for his club teammates.

Among Europe’s five major leagues, Messi had the most assists in all competitions before the World Cup break (14, 10 of which came in Ligue 1); despite playing 1,290 fewer minutes, he has equaled the 2021-22 tally All assists, and has already exceeded the number of goals scored last season (from 11 to 12 goals). There is a real sense that Messi is making final preparations for World Cup glory.

In the 18 games he played for Paris Saint-Germain during the preparations for the World Cup, Messi averaged 83 touches per game (6.38 of which were in the opponent’s penalty area), 1.44 goals, 2.81 chances created, and 0.98 major chances. 4.25 shots on goal and 3.22 successful dribbles per 90 minutes. These are incredible numbers, although Messi’s numbers do drop slightly in the 22 games he has played for PSG in all competitions since the World Cup.

Messi’s time at PSG may have seen the French side win Ligue 1 in both seasons at the Parc des Princes, but it didn’t bring the Champions League success that QSI so craved. Messi was reprimanded for an unauthorized visit to Saudi Arabia, which also ended on a sour note when some sections of PSG supported protests against him and demanded he leave the club.

It’s a huge shame for the world’s greatest player to be treated with such scorn, even if he never quite clicked with Kylian Mbappe and Neymar to inspire PSG to the coveted European success.

However, last season’s statistics belie the notion that he failed at PSG. Only four players in Europe’s top five leagues (Haaland – 61, Mbappe – 50, Mohamed Salah – 46 and Vinicius – 42) have more than Messi last season (41) Contributed more goals. He has scored 21 goals (none of which came from penalties) and assisted 20 goals, a number second only to Manchester City star Kevin De Bruyne (28 years old).

Interestingly, while De Bruyne’s expected assists (xA) of 19.24 were exceeded by 8.76, Messi accumulated 18.7 xA in 20 assists. It showed his assist total wasn’t too reliant on better-than-expected finishing from his PSG team-mates, while De Bruyne clearly benefited from the calm Haaland finishing some tough chances.

Messi created 88 chances in the game, fourth-highest among Europe’s top five leagues, behind Kevin De Bruyne (99), Vinicius (103) and Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandez (146) , while he ranks third in big chances created with 34 – 10 less than De Bruyne and 14 less than Fernandes. Meanwhile, Real Madrid winger Vinicius Junior (196) is the only player to surpass Messi (126).

In fact, Messi’s performance in the 2022-23 Ligue 1 season ranks among the best in possession and attack in Europe’s top five leagues over the past 15 seasons, ranking 100% in both chance creation and touches.

Over the mountain? almost not.

across the pond

With all the verbiage that followed the trip to Saudi Arabia, the chances of Messi staying at PSG always seemed slim, and it showed.

Al Hilal ultimately chose Messi’s good friend Neymar, who offered the Argentinian a huge contract to move to Riyadh, but due to financial constraints from his old club he was unable to return to La Liga champions Barcelona and his heart has turned elsewhere. One destination: South Florida.

Inter Miami have long been linked with Messi, and in early June, shortly before his 36th birthday, the striker confirmed he would move across the Atlantic to MLS.

It was the biggest transfer since David Beckham joined the LA Galaxy in 2003, and Messi fanaticism took over.

Miami fans had to wait until mid-July before Messi came on as a substitute in a Carabao Cup tie against Mexican club Azul Cruz.

It was his Hollywood debut: Messi converted a free-kick in stoppage time to give Gerardo Martino’s side a 2-1 win – only the second time in his career Scored the winning goal from a direct free kick during the game. In stoppage time (after such a goal against Lille in February).

Two goals followed against Atlanta United – the 100th different club Messi has scored for in his illustrious career. Both of his goals in that game were scored with his right foot; it was the first time since February 2015 that he had scored two goals with his right foot in a game.

With the Ballon d’Or only considering performances up to the end of July, Messi’s run that dragged Miami down 11 MLS games without a win before League Cup glory will not be considered, nor will the US Open. cup final, although his impact on the club was significant.

Injuries limited Messi’s minutes in the final stages of the regular season and hurt Miami’s chances of making the MLS Cup playoffs or winning the U.S. Open Cup, but he scored 11 goals in all competitions Goals and 5 assists, compared to just 14 goals for the entire season. Appearance.

While Messi is enjoying his swan song in the United States, his achievements last season – his brilliant performances in Qatar and the staggering statistics he racked up during his time at PSG – should be enough to make him a well-deserved eighth Ballon d’Or. prize.

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