Ethereum is considered the leader of altcoins. Being the second largest cryptocurrency, it has built a strong network with proof of work. But with the proof-of-stake update, Ethereum could give Bitcoin much tougher competition.
Ethereum goes where?
After the 76.81% rally, it would seem that is the way. However, this rally has been primarily driven by spot trading, which is now slowing down as prices begin to fall. Therefore, investors should prepare for the next price levels that will not rise. When looking at the open interest of ETH options by exercise, it can be seen that there is significant dominance of put options in the lower ranges.
Puts contracts are quite high for the $ 2k – $ 2.5k, while Calls dominate the $ 5k range. There are higher contracts for $ 4k, $ 5k and $ 6k, compared to the lower ranges, but these ranges are more likely based on the expiration of these contracts.
For most of these contracts, expiration is set around September or December. Ethereum hitting $ 5k by then may be a possibility, but that won’t happen at the end of August. When the August expiration is considered, it becomes clear that although these expirations are a bit more bullish, there is also the same possibility of a bearish move.
But the probable target price is not considered solely on the basis of expiry targets. These objectives are extracted from the probability index.
The probability index?
The index analyzes the market and the price movement of Ethereum to advance an estimated probability of the next possible ranges. Sadly for bullish Ethereum investors. At the moment, the index shows only a 1.26% chance of hitting $ 5k. And it makes sense too, as the 3-week 76% rally only pushed ETH up by $ 2k.
On the other hand, there seems to be an 88-96% chance that ETH will drop to $ 2k- $ 2.5k. Although the probability is high, these ranges are too low. For the altcoin to get there, it will have to drop 36%, which is highly unlikely.
So, averaging based on price action, the possibility of upcoming corrections, and on-chain data, $ 2800- $ 3000 is where ETH could end up at the end of the month.
Verifying this are the volumes of Futures and Options, which have been high, as well as Options OI and Futures OI, which are in a maximum of 1 month and a maximum of 3 months, respectively.
This is a machine translation of our English version.
Your opinion is important to us!