Analysis: Why won’t Hezbollah go to war against Israel right now?

(CNN) – For weeks, Lebanon prepared for war, people talked about their backup plans in hushed tones and the government said it was working to collect basic necessities for the population.

It all depends on the reflections of Hezbollah’s general secretary, Hassan Nasrallah, on the war between Hamas and Israel, before breaking on Friday the silence that had lasted for almost a month since October 7.

In a fiery speech from an undisclosed location, the leader of the Iran-backed Lebanese armed group praised Hamas and hailed the war as a “turning point” in the Arab-Israeli conflict.

He praised the weeks-long firefight with Israel on Lebanon’s southern border, which he described as an “unprecedented battle.”

He also said that “Hezbollah will be prepared for all scenarios” and that any escalation by the Israeli army at the border would be a “historic nonsense” that would lead to a far-reaching reaction.

However, despite all the harsh statements, Nasrallah did not beat the war drums, stating that “Hezbollah’s primary objective is to reach a ceasefire in Gaza” and that the United States, which he holds directly responsible for the bloodshed in Gaza, Palestine Strip, should implement the cessation of hostilities.

What this tells us is that Nasrallah’s current plans do not include a broader conflict, and that may be a disappointment to many on the Arab streets. As pro-Palestinian demonstrations have swept much of the region in recent weeks, many chants have asked Nasrallah to intervene. going to war.

But it will come as a relief to Israel’s Western allies, who fear a broader regional conflict and have repeatedly warned Nasrallah against entering the fray. Two U.S. aircraft carriers, including the nuclear-powered USS Gerald Ford, have been sent to the Mediterranean in a clear attempt to deter Hezbollah.

Lebanon, the small eastern Mediterranean country, has only just recovered from the devastating economic crisis of 2019, and much of the population, horrified by the high death toll and widespread destruction caused by Israel’s attack on Gaza, is exhausted from decades of wars and crises.

Nasrallah may have been held back by these popular sentiments, or perhaps he concluded, after weeks of deliberation, that his powerful paramilitary forces had much to lose in a war with Israel.

(tagToTranslate)Middle East

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