Experts warn case numbers will continue to rise by mid-summer, although there are few cases in hospitals
Covid-19 is leaving Number of new cases It’s midsummer, experts predict they will still go up In a few weeks, though in his Mostly mild cases In primary care, “something” is noticed, but in the hospital there is very little “what” and even less in the intensive care unit.
According to the latest Sentinel Surveillance Report on Influenza, COVID-19 and other Respiratory Viruses in Primary Care (IRA) and Hospitals (IRAG) published by the Carlos III Institute, a week COVID-19 incidence increases in primary care 13 pointsof 75 to 88 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The beginning of July is the 29th.
By age group, higher number they continue to occur in under 5 years oldmore than 180.
Although hospitalization rate It is located 2.04 (0.75 in the previous report), but volatile at the end of June.The remaining respiratory infections, namely influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), remained in the report’s analysis through Aug. 6. basic level in both areas.
Unlike these two viruses, Sars-Cov-2″never had seasonal behaviorSalvador Peiró, an expert in preventive medicine and public health in the field of health services research at the Valencian Community Health and Biomedical Research Promotion Foundation (Fisabio), emphasized.
“We have outbreaks every summer,” the researchers said, and it’s “predictable” that there will be outbreaks from time to time. every 5-6 monthswhich is when the protection from vaccines and natural immunity acquired after infection begins to wane, These types of spikes occur.
If all this is added to the summer’s typical increase in fluidity and social interaction, the first of the last four also completely strips off the mask “because the turnaround has been sung”.
But with each exposure, the immune system doesn’t start from scratch like it did at the beginning, because it already knows the virus, although it can mutate and produce new variants, so predictably, the spike will be, “generally , calm,” as is happening now.
the expert dilute the fact is Highest proportion occurs in children Because, in addition to having much lower vaccination coverage than adults, their disease is also very mild.
However, he noted that today’s figures are “difficult to interpret” because so few tests were performed and the tests performed were all self-diagnosed and not included in the official statistics, which only count tests performed by the health system for those aged 60. above people.
Dr. Javier Arranz, member of the Infectious Diseases Working Group of the Spanish Society of Family and Community Medicine (semFYC), agrees: “At the moment, Coronavirus is not like the flu, which is a seasonal infection that we see in the winter, but it has more to do with social behavior. “
Holidays, conferences, festivals, crowds… social ties are intensifying during this period, which is why Aranz predicts that cases will still increase in the country for “a few weeks” “Minority” is starting to decline again.
In any case, the doctor emphasized that “it appears The severity of the infection remains low Because the hospitalization rate fluctuates a lot, but it’s not steady,” although he remembers that, as always, the more cases, the more admissions, so it’s not disposable In the next few days we will also see rise of this indicator.
In response, Perot said with confidence that the new economic upturn over the summer “hasn’t actually caused a problem: in primary care, they noticed something, in the hospital they noticed almost nothing, in the intensive care unit. , nothing.”
Although we have all seen the number of infections soaring around us, in fact all infections are mild, so there is no need to take special measures, “except for those who have symptoms, it is best to wear a mask and share with the elderly or others. People keep their distance “vulnerable”.
Things change for them because their systems are weakened, but this happens with all respiratory infections, not just COVID-19; so the more the spread of the virus is contained, the more protected they are .
Vaccines do not prevent infectionbut they are indeed “very effective” in preventing serious disease; for this reason, Fisabio researchers are advocating a new dose of memory for vulnerable populations this fall.
The fact that it’s fall is just a matter of logistics to coincide with the flu, but not because the coronavirus is now expected to adopt seasonal behavior it hasn’t seen so far.
Given that the variants in circulation have changed – now the main variants in Spain are XXB (33%), while this season it is BQ.1 (32%) and XBB.1.5 (31%) -, The “wise” thing to do is to get a new piercing Use the latest vaccines made by Pfizer, Moderna and Novavax. He insisted that others should be concerned about those at risk of severe coronavirus, against whom extreme precautions must be taken.
So if you have any respiratory symptoms, “whether it’s coronavirus, flu, syncytial virus, whatever it is, it doesn’t matter, You must try not to get infected use basic measurement Education and health: distance and mask. It has to be forever, not because now we’ve bounced back,” concluded Perot.
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