The applicant is Morena’s candidacy By 2024, Marcelo Ebrardassuming he has a preference advantage over the process of poll It is said to be produced by an unknown company Rubrum from Multipoll, Just created in 2021, its director and founder, Luis Alberto García Lozano, was a local PAN representative in Nuevo Leon (2009-2012).
This company He has been polling for less than two years, and while the results are not 100% accurate, the discrepancies between pollster reports and the final election results are still between 5% and 10% in four revised elections. In this case, the candidate Lublum designated as leader did win the election.
The company has conducted polls in eight states with gubernatorial elections. In the state of Mexico, they were precise, with a margin of error of only 2% and 1%, but in Coahuila, the difference was more than 10%.
“That’s the latest investigation I’ve seen this morning, so there’s been unbridled haulage and convoys in many states,” he said. Ebrard said, I’ve attached a graphic from the August 16th Rubrum poll where he has an 8-point lead over Sheinbaum.
Another startling fact is that, according to the Commercial Public Register, the founders of Rubrum in 2021 received information from several years earlier, in 2017, Appointment of legal representative, but from polling firm Massive Caller, There appears to be no record of revocation to date.
The National Transparency Platform shows records of at least 15 PAN contracts with Massive Caller, recent In 2023, it will be 2 million 520 thousand pesos.
and there is a contract Earlier this year, when Claudia Sheinbaum was still head of government, an agreement was signed with the Secretariat of the Government of Mexico City for the “Telephone survey service for mobile and landline numbers” with direct rewards of up to 174,000 pesos.
Notably, Morena National President Mario Delgado reported that a lottery will be held this week to select companies that will conduct surveys of candidates for the 2024 presidential election.
“Signatures that produced distorted results in the previous election process will not be able to participate in the draw,” he said.
How Accurate Are Rubrum Polls?
As of May 30, Morenstad candidate Delfina Gomez had a voting intention rate of 54.8 percent; Alejandra del Moral 45.2 percent, according to the Mexican state election pollster.
However, Rubrum also reported in the last poll before the elections in Coahuila that PRI-PAN-PRD’s Manolo Jiménez had 45 percent voting intentions; 22.5 percent allocated It was given to Ricardo Mejía of the Labor Party, and 22.4 percent was allocated to Morensta Armando Guadiana.he electoral court confirmation Manolo Jiménez received 56.93% of the support; 13.30% of candidates came from Ricardo Mejía of the Labor Party and 21.39% from Morena ) of Armando Guadiana.
In other words, in reality, the numbers reported by the pollsters were about 10 percentage points lower than the actual numbers for Jimenez and Mejia, even though Guadiana’s numbers were very similar.
For Aguascalientes in 2022, Lublum attributed 47.9 percent of the voting intent in the last poll before the election to PRI-PAN-PRD candidate Tere Jiménez, 41% is attributed to Morenstan Nora Ruvalcaba and 4.5% is attributed to Anayeli Muñoz from Movimiento Ciudadano.
according to Aguascalientes state electoral body, Maria Teresa Jimenez received 53.7% of the vote; Nora Ruvalcaba 33%; Anayeli Munoz 6.9%. In this case, Rubrum’s result has a margin of error of about 5% for Jiménez; but for Rovalcaba it’s 8% and for Munoz it’s 2%.
In Durango, they also gave National Action Party candidate Esteban Villegas the edge with 47.8 percent of the vote; Morensta Marina Vitela with 43.3 percent, Patricia Flores (Patricia Flores) 5%.
in this case Durango Electoral College Villegas, the candidate of the Va x Durango coalition, received 53.78 percent of the vote; Villetra 39.29 percent, the report said. That is, about 5% coverage of PAN candidates and about 4% coverage of Morenista.
In all cases reviewed, pollsters indicated that the leading candidate in voting intentions matched the winner of the eventual election.